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Villa on Tuesday.", "fragment_from": 1001, "fragment_to": 1067, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/arsenal-predicted-lineup-vs-aston-villa-12-30-25", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Barnaby Lane", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "75da9f4adda25f785c0933bc8ddd6453bd37db639d1835d8ae5af0433bbf2588", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-12-29T20:00:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:09:42.634Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-12-29T20:00:01.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-12-29T20:00:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:09:42.634Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null }, { "observation_id": "n-40b447680e90fd3bf2838ea0", "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-40b447680e90fd3bf2838ea0", "quote_text": "Arsenal Predicted Lineup vs. Aston Villa: Gabriel Returns for Crunch Match", "fragment_from": 0, "fragment_to": 74, "quote_allowed": true, "source_info": { "medium": "website", "url": "https://www.si.com/soccer/arsenal-predicted-lineup-vs-aston-villa-12-30-25", "display_name": null, "speaker": "Barnaby Lane", "authorship": "channel_owner", "media_from_ms": null, "bundle_id": "75da9f4adda25f785c0933bc8ddd6453bd37db639d1835d8ae5af0433bbf2588", "material_removed": false }, "published_at": "2025-12-29T20:00:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:09:42.634Z", "executed_at": null, "statement_class": "no_event", "status": "recognised", "cause": null, "cause_code": null, "event": null, "market_label": null, "outcome_label": null, "odds_set": { "by_author": null, "our_snapshot": null, "our_snapshot_at": null, "our_snapshot_source": null, "closing": null, "closing_source": null }, "stake_hundredths": null, "result": null, "simulation_change_hundredths": null, "bankroll_after_hundredths": null, "executed_by": null, "series_label": null, "withdrawn": false, "provenance": "found_post_match", "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "dates": { "fragment_at": "2025-12-29T20:00:01.000Z", "fragment_basis": "page", "source_page_at": "2025-12-29T20:00:01.000Z", "detected_at": "2026-09-28T16:09:42.634Z", "archive_snapshot_at": null, "flags": [], "flag_words": null, "rule_version": "1.1" }, "origin": "source_stated_date", "origin_detail": "found_after_match", "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "added_on": null, "late_publication": null, "author_claim": null, "author_claim_outcome": { "result": null, "scoreline": null, "data_status": "unknown", "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled", "methodology_version": "2.2", "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled." }, "settlements": [], "corrections": [], "funnel_stage": "statement", "authorship": null, "correction": null } ], "standing": null, "retro": null, "late": null, "price_vs_market": null, "record_summary": { "contract_version": "1", "entity_type": "person", "entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "si.com", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20251230011318id_/https://www.si.com/soccer/man-utd-vs-wolves-preview-predictions-and-lineups-12-30-25" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-10-01", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "none", "series_code": null, "series": null, "restored": false, "headline_kind": null, "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "matches": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": null, "staked_hundredths": null, "return_percent": null, "stake_per_pick_hundredths": null, "period_from": null, "period_to": null, "status": "unknown", "method_version": null, "short_history": true, "reason": "4 predictions were read after the match, from archived pages", "reasons": [ { "code": "after_match", "predictions": 4, "words": "read after the match" } ], "sentence": "Forecast Record has recorded 53 statements by Barnaby Lane, including 4 predictions. Of the 4 predictions we hold for Barnaby Lane, 3 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Statements", "value": "53", "anchor": "/methodology/#statement", "note": null }, { "label": "Predictions", "value": "4", "anchor": "/methodology/#prediction", "note": null } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": null, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record has recorded 53 statements by Barnaby Lane, including 4 predictions. Of the 4 predictions we hold for Barnaby Lane, 3 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. The statements are listed below; as of 7 November 2026.", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/barnaby-lane/", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": null }, "origin": { "contract_version": "1", "predictions": 4, "under_review": 0, "no_match_linked": 0, "proven_predictions": 3, "proven_checked": 3, "proven_measured": 3, "proven_dates": 1, "parts": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.", "predictions": 0, "checked": 0, "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "series_code": "market_price", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "archived", "title": "Archived before kick-off", "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.", "predictions": 3, "checked": 3, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 3, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 3, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": 0.0, "baseline_matches": 3, "baseline_distinct_matches": 3, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 0.0, "favourite_hits": 1, "favourite_rate": 33.3, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to these score forecasts.", "0 of 3 score forecasts named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 0 of 3 matches; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same 3 matches.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win)." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 3, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 1, "checked": 1, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 1, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": 0.0, "outcome_checked": 1, "outcome_hits": 1, "outcome_rate": 100.0, "baseline_matches": 1, "baseline_distinct_matches": 1, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 1, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": 100.0, "favourite_hits": 1, "favourite_rate": 100.0, "price_basis": "last pre-match archive price", "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [ "Outcome checked. No betting return is attributed to this score forecast.", "0 of 1 score forecast named the exact score.", "The result implied by the named score was right in 1 of 1 match; the market favourite was right in 1 of the same match.", "The market favourite is the home win, draw or away win with the lowest last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off).", "The implied result follows from the named score (2-1 implies a home win).", "These forecasts were found after the match; when they were made depends on the date the source gives." ] }, "eligible": { "checked": 1, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, "live_alongside": null, "headline_record_ids": [], "caption": "Recorded statements and predictions · as of 7 November 2026", "record_from": "2025-12-08", "record_to": "2025-12-30" }, "recorded_picks": [ { "record_id": "n-f9a66b6be5da446f5ed42878", "url": null, "match": "Manchester United v Wolverhampton Wanderers", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-12-30T20:15:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -6524.5, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Manchester United 3-0 Wolverhampton Wanderers", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-1", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-30T01:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:43:29.145Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-46914b74acd5a5d0ff47b7ba", "url": null, "match": "Arsenal v Aston Villa", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-12-30T20:15:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -6524.5, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Arsenal 1-2 Aston Villa", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "4-1", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-30T02:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:43:24.937Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-f445759eaaf99019fcf296db", "url": null, "match": "Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-12-30T19:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -6525.2, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Chelsea 2-1 AFC Bournemouth", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "2-2", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-30T03:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:43:21.969Z", "origin": "Archived before kick-off", "record_part": "archived", "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null }, { "record_id": "n-4380777b77fdc7d434700d10", "url": null, "match": "Wolverhampton Wanderers v Manchester United", "match_url": null, "kickoff": "2025-12-08T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "Premier League", "lead_hours": -7052.2, "market_code": "correct_score_market", "author_said": "Correct score: Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-2 Manchester United", "quote": null, "group": "excluded", "outcome": "Excluded", "claim_outcome": "Lost", "final_score": "1-4", "reason": "counted in the restored-history series", "reason_code": "after_match", "points_hundredths": null, "series_code": null, "series_short": null, "author_price": null, "settled_price": null, "published_at": "2025-12-08T04:00:00.000Z", "recorded_at": "2026-09-28T16:10:29.206Z", "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source", "record_part": "found_after", "record_part_words": "Found after the match", "in_headline": false, "attribution": null, "verdict_line": null, "price_disputed": null, "checked_after_kickoff": false, "favourite": null, "correction": null } ], "lead_time": { "contract_version": 1, "threshold_hours": 2.0, "picks": 4, "before_kickoff": 0, "after_kickoff": 4, "at_least_2h": 0, "share_2h_plus": 0.0, "median_hours": null, "min_hours": null, "max_hours": null, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "none", "picks": 0, "settled_picks_all": 0, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 0, "no_recorded_line": 0, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 0, "author_net_hundredths": 0, "favourite_net_hundredths": 0, "difference_hundredths": 0, "author_return_percent": null, "favourite_return_percent": null, "author_hit_rate": null, "favourite_hit_rate": null, "picked_favourite_share": null, "by_market": [], "return_over_time": [], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 4, "pages": 1, "page_urls": [ "/authors/barnaby-lane/" ], "groups": { "settled": 0, "pending": 0, "excluded": 4 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 4, "author_url": "/authors/barnaby-lane/", "current": false }, "title_tag": "Barnaby Lane Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources", "calculator": null, "person": { "person_id": "o-91f68cf55719259034cef9f5", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Barnaby Lane", "main_entity": "e-91f68cf55719259034cef9f5", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-91f68cf55719259034cef9f5", "medium": "Sports Illustrated", "channel": "section pages", "domain": "si.com", "source_info": "sports-illustrated", "byline": "Barnaby Lane", "url": "/sources/sports-illustrated/", "summary": { "statements": 53, "predictions": 4, "settled_picks": 0, "headline_kind": null, "return_percent": null, "headline_part": null, "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-10-01" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": null, "number_changes": [], "author_card": { "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 4 predictions · last change 28 September 2026", "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/barnaby-lane/", "s": "2026-09-28", "prediction_count": 4, "refreshed_at": "2026-09-28", "html": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 28 September 2026 · 4 predictions · last change 28 September 2026" }, "trust": { "tier": "probation", "in_words": "Probation", "settled_count": 3, "days": 1, "weeks": 1, "archive": false, "in_review": false, "own_page": false, "won_count": 0, "first_settled_on": "2025-12-30", "products_in_level": 1, "rule": { "tracked": { "min_settled": 30, "min_days": 30, "min_distinct_weeks": 2, "no_violations": true }, "established": { "min_settled": 100, "min_days": 90 } }, "show": true }, "colleagues": [ { "source_code": "sports-illustrated", "source_name": "Sports Illustrated", "source_url": "/sources/sports-illustrated/", "label": "Also at Sports Illustrated", "authors_total": 13, "authors": [ { "name": "Ewan Ross-Murray", "url": "/authors/ewan-ross-murray/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 6, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.81", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 6 }, { "name": "James Cormack", "url": "/authors/james-cormack/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 3, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.41", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 3 }, { "name": "Amanda Langell", "url": "/authors/amanda-langell/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 1, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "9.20", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 1 }, { "name": "Roberto Casillas", "url": "/authors/roberto-casillas/", "headline_part": "archived", "settled_picks": 1, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 1 }, { "name": "Andrew Headspeath", "url": "/authors/andrew-headspeath/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Ben Steiner", "url": "/authors/ben-steiner/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Braden Chalker", "url": "/authors/braden-chalker/", "headline_part": null, "settled_picks": 0, "return_percent": null, "small_sample": true, "average_odds": null, "odds_from_author": null, "odds_from_snapshot": null }, { "name": "Grey 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