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 "heading": "Andrew Beasley: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "3 settled picks by Andrew Beasley archived before kick-off across 2 matches, 16 Feb 2025 – 13 Apr 2025: won 2 of 3, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Andrew Beasley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 16 February and 13 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 37 predictions we hold for Andrew Beasley, 15 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 22 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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   "observation_id": "n-f04ce8f4f427af0412bfecbf",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f04ce8f4f427af0412bfecbf",
   "quote_text": "City are going to be fascinating. While they finished third last term, the underlying numbers suggested they were far worse. Their journey back to the top is further than the 24/25 table implies. And will wildcard Rayan Cherki prove an inspired signing or burn Pep Guardiola’s brain out?",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0e8b4e084dbcbde282af6166",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-0e8b4e084dbcbde282af6166",
   "quote_text": "Can Arsenal or Man City, the second and third favourites, stop them?",
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250814160206id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/08/14/premier-league-best-bets-odds-promotion-relegation-2025-26-andrew-beasley/",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-23934262461ef898bfc6e6a1",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-23934262461ef898bfc6e6a1",
   "quote_text": "But the Reds have recruited well, especially in British transfer record signing Florian Wirtz.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250814160206id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/08/14/premier-league-best-bets-odds-promotion-relegation-2025-26-andrew-beasley/",
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    "speaker": "Andrew Beasley",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8c558417f97fd1e917fa2891",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8c558417f97fd1e917fa2891",
   "quote_text": "They must deal with the tragic loss of Diogo Jota, while Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Diaz have left for the continent.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250814160206id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/08/14/premier-league-best-bets-odds-promotion-relegation-2025-26-andrew-beasley/",
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    "speaker": "Andrew Beasley",
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   },
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
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  "service": 3,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 9,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 3,
  "found_post_match": 6,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 5,
  "span_from": "2025-02-16",
  "span_to": "2025-04-13",
  "line_text": "restored history: 9, of which pre-match archive 3",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League matches between 16 February 2025 and 13 April 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 9. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 3. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 6. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 9,
   "share": "0.4444"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 4,
    "roi": "-13.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 9,
    "roi": "-9.4444",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 9 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "news.paddypower.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250104134806id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/01/04/football-accumulator-tips-premier-league-3pm-kick-offs/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-09-29",
  "observed_to": "2026-09-30",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 3,
  "matches": 2,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 16550,
  "staked_hundredths": 30000,
  "return_percent": "55.17",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2025-02-16",
  "period_to": "2025-04-13",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Andrew Beasley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 16 February and 13 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 37 predictions we hold for Andrew Beasley, 15 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 22 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "3",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "2",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+165.50 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+55.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 9 selections in this historical price series, 3 have a pre-match archive copy and 6 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
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   "archived": {
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    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 3,
    "matches": 2,
    "match_dates": 2,
    "period_from": "2025-02-16",
    "period_to": "2025-04-13",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 16550,
    "low": {
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     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1450,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2025-04-13",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16550,
     "after_picks": 3
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1450,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2025-04-13",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16550,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 3 settled archived picks by Andrew Beasley from copies archived before kick-off, across 2 matches between 16 February and 13 April 2025. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 3 settled archived picks. Of the 37 predictions we hold for Andrew Beasley, 15 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 22 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/andrew-beasley/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 37,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 15,
   "proven_checked": 3,
   "proven_measured": 3,
   "proven_dates": 2,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 15,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 2,
      "net_points_hundredths": 16550,
      "staked_hundredths": 30000,
      "return_percent": "55.17",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-02-16",
      "period_to": "2025-04-13",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 3,
      "priced": 3
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 3,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "66.7",
      "implied_percent": "50.5",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "53.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "European handicap",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "61.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "35.7"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 22,
     "checked": 6,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 6,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 3,
      "net_points_hundredths": -25050,
      "staked_hundredths": 60000,
      "return_percent": "-41.75",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-02-23",
      "period_to": "2025-03-15",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "-12.62",
       "return_other_percent": "-13.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -5050,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -5200,
       "period_from": "2025-02-23",
       "period_to": "2025-03-15"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 6,
      "priced": 6
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 6,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "33.3",
      "implied_percent": "54.4",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "52.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Corner handicap",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "59.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Corners over/under",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "47.7"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "63.1"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-8ee6c3e363d121c35921056e",
   "n-b483c2364b0078fb7e76d55d",
   "n-d0e1c2044abd563653130ecc"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 16 February – 13 April 2025 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2025-02-16",
  "record_to": "2025-04-13"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
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   "url": null,
   "match": "Liverpool v West Ham United",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-04-13T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -12804.0,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Liverpool win, both teams to score: yes",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Won",
   "claim_outcome": "Won",
   "final_score": "2-1",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": 18000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "2.8000",
   "published_at": "2025-04-13T07:59:36.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-29T00:59:34.902Z",
   "origin": "Archived before kick-off",
   "record_part": "archived",
   "record_part_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-450901259f77f8c30d251980",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Brentford",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-15T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -13519.0,
   "market_code": "corners_handicap",
   "author_said": "Corner handicap -2: AFC Bournemouth -2",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.6750",
   "published_at": "2025-03-15T16:38:19.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:47.141Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-011c95ddc46463c45f79b38b",
   "url": "/authors/andrew-beasley/picks/2/#pick-n-011c95ddc46463c45f79b38b",
   "match": "AFC Bournemouth v Brentford",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-15T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -13519.0,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: AFC Bournemouth",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "1.7500",
   "published_at": "2025-03-15T16:38:19.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:47.141Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-011c95ddc46463c45f79b38b",
    "quote_text": "Bournemouth to win",
    "fragment_from": 994,
    "fragment_to": 1012,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20260502061831id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/03/15/bournemouth-brentford-tips-premier-league-best-bets-15-march/",
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     "speaker": "Andrew Beasley",
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    },
    "published_at": "2025-03-15T16:38:19.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:47.141Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.353Z",
    "statement_class": "unpriced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "AFC Bournemouth v Brentford",
     "competition_name": "Premier League",
     "starts_at": "2025-03-15T17:30:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "1-2"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "AFC Bournemouth",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": null,
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "1.7407",
     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-03-15T16:38:19.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:32:47.141Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "AFC Bournemouth",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: AFC Bournemouth"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "scoreline": "1-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was AFC Bournemouth 1-2 Brentford."
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    "settlements": [
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
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      "status": "confirmed",
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      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.353Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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     },
     {
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      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "AFC Bournemouth",
      "decimal_odds": "1.7500",
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      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.358Z",
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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     "status": "matches_source",
     "status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster",
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    "choice_words": "AFC Bournemouth to win"
   }
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  {
   "record_id": "n-94a5e7f40f2e57d2a49ce794",
   "url": null,
   "match": "Brentford v Aston Villa",
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   "kickoff": "2025-03-08T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -13687.1,
   "market_code": "corners_total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 11.5 corners: over 11.5",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-1",
   "reason": null,
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": "2.0950",
   "published_at": "2025-03-08T16:30:36.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:34:11.100Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-d573c63d4be8f4c26c86bd8a",
   "url": "/authors/andrew-beasley/picks/2/#pick-n-d573c63d4be8f4c26c86bd8a",
   "match": "Brentford v Aston Villa",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-03-08T17:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "lead_hours": -13687.1,
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   "author_said": "1X2, match result: Brentford",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "0-1",
   "reason": null,
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   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
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   "published_at": "2025-03-08T16:30:36.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T00:34:11.100Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
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   "evidence": {
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    "fragment_from": 1057,
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250308180511id_/https://news.paddypower.com/football/2025/03/08/brentford-aston-villa-tips-premier-league-best-bets-8-march/",
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    "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:34:11.100Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.202Z",
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    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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     "url": null,
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    },
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    "odds_set": {
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     "closing_source": "aggregator closing price"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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    "series_label": "Restored, at the closing market price",
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    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-03-08T16:30:36.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-09-30T00:34:11.100Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
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     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Brentford",
     "author_odds": null,
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: Brentford"
    },
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     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Brentford 0-1 Aston Villa."
    },
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      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Brentford",
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      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:01.208Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
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     "forecaster": "Andrew Beasley",
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     "status": "matches_source",
     "status_words": "Named in the source as the tipster",
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   "record_id": "n-d08c66b8b390f46d2577e89e",
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Mohamed Salah to have 2+ goal involvements",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-18T11:20:30.000Z",
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   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Liverpool to win",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-08T16:42:45.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:52:58.981Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "A Bet Builder with these bets pays at approximately 28/1 with Paddy Power.",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-08T16:42:45.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:52:58.981Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-e7fc2af2e4e6aedb751f4745",
   "url": null,
   "match": null,
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": null,
   "competition": null,
   "lead_hours": null,
   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Aston Villa v Leicester – Both teams to score, yes",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "after_match",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-04T09:02:28.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-09-30T15:55:00.563Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 10,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 10,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
   "market_without_favourite": 0,
   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 37,
  "pages": 3,
  "page_urls": [
   "/authors/andrew-beasley/",
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   "/authors/andrew-beasley/picks/3/"
  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 9,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 28
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 20,
  "author_url": "/authors/andrew-beasley/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Andrew Beasley Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
  "person_id": "o-316fa72ac95a05588edd1e8a",
  "type_code": "individual",
  "name_shown": "Andrew Beasley",
  "main_entity": "e-316fa72ac95a05588edd1e8a",
  "identity": {
   "status": "not_verified",
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   "source_list": []
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-316fa72ac95a05588edd1e8a",
    "medium": "Paddy Power News",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "news.paddypower.com",
    "source_info": "paddy-power",
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     "predictions": 37,
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 55.17,
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 },
 "data_revision": {
  "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
  "updated": "2026-10-19",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
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  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
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   "period_from": "2025-02-16",
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 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-bb43f6ec58ce0c66415f",
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   "data_version": "2026-10-19.6",
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   "url": "/authors/andrew-beasley/",
   "category": "data_corrected",
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "ec668df01d9e8acb841f961deed79884fd71d533f310b6d5558805c2b031187d",
    "text": "+320.50 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "after": {
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "13ee39471b0d6d12a9ecc3d10e0afa8450d204a90e913875bc16dcc6c2797f3a",
    "text": "+165.50 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "Data corrected: 1 pick left the headline sample.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "+270.00 points on 8 settled picks across 5 matches · second data provider's closing price, restored · method retro-1.1"
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    "return_percent": "80.12",
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    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
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    "composition_hash": "ec668df01d9e8acb841f961deed79884fd71d533f310b6d5558805c2b031187d",
    "text": "+320.50 points on 4 settled picks across 2 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "The headline rule changed on 9 October 2026: the headline is the live record at our recorded market price; without one, a historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off) on picks archived before kick-off only. Picks first found after the match no longer enter the headline number. Was: second data provider's closing price, restored (8 settled picks). Now: historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only (4 settled picks).",
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    "market_list": [
     {
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     {
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      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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      "net_points_hundredths": 18000,
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    ],
    "leagues": [
     {
      "code_name": "Premier League",
      "in_words": "Premier League",
      "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/",
      "settled_picks": 3,
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      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 16550,
      "return_percent": "55.2",
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      "small_sample": true,
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      "league_markets": [
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       },
       {
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        "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
        "return_percent": null,
        "period_from": "2025-02-16",
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        "small_sample": true,
        "average_odds": "1.62",
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       },
       {
        "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result",
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        "won": 1,
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        "net_points_hundredths": 18000,
        "return_percent": null,
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 "author_card": {
  "body": "Record tracked by Forecast Record since 29 September 2026 · 37 predictions · last change 30 September 2026",
  "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/andrew-beasley/",
  "s": "2026-09-29",
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  "refreshed_at": "2026-09-30",
  "html": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/andrew-beasley/\">Record tracked by Forecast Record since 29 September 2026 · 37 predictions · last change 30 September 2026</a>"
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 "trust": {
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  "days": 57,
  "weeks": 2,
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  "won_count": 2,
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  "products_in_level": 1,
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    "min_distinct_weeks": 2,
    "no_violations": true
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   "established": {
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    "min_days": 90
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 "colleagues": [
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   "source_code": "paddy-power",
   "source_name": "Paddy Power News",
   "source_url": "/sources/paddy-power/",
   "label": "Also at Paddy Power News",
   "authors_total": 12,
   "authors": [
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     "url": "/authors/joe-cole/",
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     "settled_picks": 15,
     "return_percent": "39.8",
     "small_sample": false,
     "average_odds": "3.27",
     "odds_from_author": 0,
     "odds_from_snapshot": 15
    },
    {
     "name": "Feargal Brennan",
     "url": "/authors/feargal-brennan/",
     "headline_part": "live",
     "settled_picks": 6,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "1.75",
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     "odds_from_snapshot": 6
    },
    {
     "name": "Matthew O'Regan",
     "url": "/authors/matthew-o-regan/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 5,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "3.46",
     "odds_from_author": 0,
     "odds_from_snapshot": 5
    },
    {
     "name": "Mark Lawrenson",
     "url": "/authors/mark-lawrenson/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "1.44",
     "odds_from_author": 0,
     "odds_from_snapshot": 3
    },
    {
     "name": "Sam Farley",
     "url": "/authors/sam-farley/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 3,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "2.25",
     "odds_from_author": 0,
     "odds_from_snapshot": 3
    },
    {
     "name": "Shane O'Brien",
     "url": "/authors/shane-o-brien/",
     "headline_part": "archived",
     "settled_picks": 2,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": "1.31",
     "odds_from_author": 0,
     "odds_from_snapshot": 2
    },
    {
     "name": "Andy Robson Tips",
     "url": "/authors/andy-robson-tips/",
     "headline_part": null,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    },
    {
     "name": "Colin Harvey",
     "url": "/authors/colin-harvey/",
     "headline_part": null,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    },
    {
     "name": "James O'Rourke",
     "url": "/authors/james-o-rourke/",
     "headline_part": null,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    },
    {
     "name": "Oli Nixon",
     "url": "/authors/oli-nixon/",
     "headline_part": null,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    },
    {
     "name": "Paddy Murphy",
     "url": "/authors/paddy-murphy/",
     "headline_part": null,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    },
    {
     "name": "Peter Crouch",
     "url": "/authors/peter-crouch/",
     "headline_part": null,
     "settled_picks": 0,
     "return_percent": null,
     "small_sample": true,
     "average_odds": null,
     "odds_from_author": null,
     "odds_from_snapshot": null
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "author_type": "Pundit",
 "data_changes": {
  "added_later": "2 records added on 29 Sep 2026 found after the match; 3 records added on 30 Sep 2026 from archived copies; 20 records added on 30 Sep 2026 found after the match; 1 more record added on other dates. The current numbers include them; numbers published earlier, including the record before each match, do not change.",
  "records_corrected": 0,
  "last_correction_at": "2026-10-19T19:39:27.559Z",
  "corrections_url": "/corrections/"
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 "entity_id": "person:o-316fa72ac95a05588edd1e8a",
 "source_revision": 207,
 "related": [
  {
   "url": "/cards/e-316fa72ac95a05588edd1e8a-bank/",
   "name": "Bankroll card — Andrew Beasley",
   "detail": null,
   "source_group": "cards"
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