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 "heading": "Ali Demir: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 86 settled picks by Ali Demir recorded before kick-off across 53 matches, 9 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026: −7.2% at our recorded market prices.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 86 settled live picks by Ali Demir before kick-off across 53 matches between 9 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −7.2% on the total staked. Of the 652 predictions we hold for Ali Demir, 381 are linked to matches: 247 were recorded by us before kick-off and 134 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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    "profit_hundredths": -94879,
    "outcome_id": "ish-12aa64c4a3d8265059b11114"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T18:29:15.961Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 910821,
    "profit_hundredths": -89179,
    "outcome_id": "ish-7adc9f55bf1b4a0b83d5bd79"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T18:29:15.980Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 900821,
    "profit_hundredths": -99179,
    "outcome_id": "ish-0416da0405c7e1487eb3bdc6"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T18:29:15.994Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 890821,
    "profit_hundredths": -109179,
    "outcome_id": "ish-a5d47f01c148a76c6c01b44f"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T19:16:08.449Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 880821,
    "profit_hundredths": -119179,
    "outcome_id": "ish-b3f1e2988296d9a7b278188d"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T20:10:21.141Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 886171,
    "profit_hundredths": -113829,
    "outcome_id": "ish-095878e49ec6236c4baca267"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-01T20:10:21.152Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 893171,
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    "outcome_id": "ish-41b3f417d42fb2ea6eace6d6"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-03T22:07:43.695Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 883171,
    "profit_hundredths": -116829,
    "outcome_id": "ish-b2c9f9264b872d8fccb69cca"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-03T22:07:43.717Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 873171,
    "profit_hundredths": -126829,
    "outcome_id": "ish-31c89d1b333acf3547e06e4b"
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   {
    "at": "2026-11-04T22:18:12.404Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 884771,
    "profit_hundredths": -115229,
    "outcome_id": "ish-46ccd39e64520ee88891ee4a"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-04T22:18:12.416Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 874771,
    "profit_hundredths": -125229,
    "outcome_id": "ish-1cb13274df7844f52076ce8f"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-04T22:18:12.428Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 883467,
    "profit_hundredths": -116533,
    "outcome_id": "ish-0dc07c80f219a40070ac1b74"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-04T22:18:12.438Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 889455,
    "profit_hundredths": -110545,
    "outcome_id": "ish-46ebac9d37f6f9978dd5b6c0"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-05T20:22:51.026Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 879455,
    "profit_hundredths": -120545,
    "outcome_id": "ish-39c6cf36a228e340eee5d4d2"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-05T20:22:51.053Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 910455,
    "profit_hundredths": -89545,
    "outcome_id": "ish-ba77ad9aff333bf1fa9a12bc"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-05T20:22:51.157Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 923455,
    "profit_hundredths": -76545,
    "outcome_id": "ish-d8622abfe1e99f9ab4af3467"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-05T22:53:59.108Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 930862,
    "profit_hundredths": -69138,
    "outcome_id": "ish-368a4b22d33c8ccef168d260"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-05T22:53:59.131Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 951012,
    "profit_hundredths": -48988,
    "outcome_id": "ish-5290ac41099c70b9655d9cd6"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T16:49:27.499Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 941012,
    "profit_hundredths": -58988,
    "outcome_id": "ish-a840febeb23e61db38930f12"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T16:49:27.530Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 947712,
    "profit_hundredths": -52288,
    "outcome_id": "ish-bc5dbc1acb0e9371b4224628"
   },
   {
    "at": "2026-11-07T16:49:27.553Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 937712,
    "profit_hundredths": -62288,
    "outcome_id": "ish-bb46c6e7a942c3c8fe6d22b5"
   }
  ],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "When the balance falls below 100 points and no bets are open, 10000 points are added; the remaining balance is kept. While bets are open we wait for settlement.",
  "series_key": "market_price",
  "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 2039,
  "recognised": 652,
  "accepted": 336,
  "executed": 172,
  "calculated": 147,
  "gaps": [
   {
    "cause": "not_supported",
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   },
   {
    "cause": "not_checked",
    "figure": 153
   },
   {
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 75
   },
   {
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 37
   },
   {
    "cause": "disputed_reading",
    "figure": 10
   },
   {
    "cause": "National-team matches",
    "figure": 5
   },
   {
    "cause": "no_price_at_capture",
    "figure": 1
   }
  ]
 },
 "record_counts": {
  "dictionary_version": "1",
  "statements": 2039,
  "of_them_restored": 466,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 319,
   "not_about_a_match": 993,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 652,
  "predictions_restored": 96,
  "matches": 115,
  "admitted": 336,
  "qualifying_picks": 172,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 51,
  "settled_picks": 147,
  "settled_picks_restored": 41,
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "market_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": false,
    "qualifying_picks": 100,
    "settled_picks": 86,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 14,
    "matches": 53,
    "operations_settled": 86,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "2.2"
    ],
    "display_name": "At an independent odds snapshot"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "author_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": false,
    "qualifying_picks": 119,
    "settled_picks": 104,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 15,
    "matches": 61,
    "operations_settled": 104,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "2.1",
     "2.2"
    ],
    "display_name": "At the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 19,
    "settled_picks": 15,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 4,
    "matches": 6,
    "operations_settled": 15,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 39,
    "settled_picks": 32,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 7,
    "matches": 12,
    "operations_settled": 32,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 50,
    "settled_picks": 40,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 10,
    "matches": 13,
    "operations_settled": 40,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.1"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [
   {
    "code_name": "not_supported",
    "cause": "not_supported",
    "figure": 199
   },
   {
    "code_name": "not_checked",
    "cause": "not_checked",
    "figure": 153
   },
   {
    "code_name": "ambiguous",
    "cause": "other reading",
    "figure": 75
   },
   {
    "code_name": "after_match",
    "cause": "read after the match, from archived pages",
    "figure": 37
   },
   {
    "code_name": "disputed_reading",
    "cause": "disputed_reading",
    "figure": 10
   },
   {
    "code_name": "outside_coverage",
    "cause": "National-team matches",
    "figure": 5
   },
   {
    "code_name": "no_price_at_capture",
    "cause": "no_price_at_capture",
    "figure": 1
   }
  ],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {
   "ads": 47,
   "service": 1
  },
  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-3ce86c47f985c408297e2171",
   "quote_text": "In den 26 erfassten Pflichtspielduellen kommt LAFC auf 15 Siege, Seattle auf sieben, dazu gab es vier Unentschieden.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "speaker": "Ali Demir",
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   },
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    "flags": [],
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7e3ad859a6212bdebf0a53ed",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7e3ad859a6212bdebf0a53ed",
   "quote_text": "Die Defensive ist das größte Gegenargument für die Torwette, auch wenn Seattle Sounders zuletzt mehrfach ohne Treffer blieb.",
   "fragment_from": 7433,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sportwetten.bild.de/tipps/seattle-sounders-los-angeles-fc-prognose-08-11-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Ali Demir",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e76a0cd14f8857496860b753",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e76a0cd14f8857496860b753",
   "quote_text": "Hugo Lloris blieb in dieser Saison bei 29 Ligaeinsätzen 12-mal ohne Gegentor.",
   "fragment_from": 7076,
   "fragment_to": 7153,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sportwetten.bild.de/tipps/seattle-sounders-los-angeles-fc-prognose-08-11-2026/",
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    "speaker": "Ali Demir",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9276ab47cf5832526ee77910",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9276ab47cf5832526ee77910",
   "quote_text": "Brian Schmetzer muss zudem ohne Nikola Petković, Paul Rothrock und Pedro de la Vega planen.",
   "fragment_from": 5635,
   "fragment_to": 5726,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://sportwetten.bild.de/tipps/seattle-sounders-los-angeles-fc-prognose-08-11-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Ali Demir",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
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    "flags": [],
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-7075b10add785f4008b21b54",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-7075b10add785f4008b21b54",
   "quote_text": "Wer diesen Tipp als Neukunde spielen möchte, sollte vor der Wettabgabe die Bedingungen für einen",
   "fragment_from": 4940,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://sportwetten.bild.de/tipps/seattle-sounders-los-angeles-fc-prognose-08-11-2026/",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-11-07T06:30:36.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "dates": {
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
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   "quote_text": "Dave Challinor gibt sein Debüt als Trainer von Sheffield Wednesday",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/34/#pick-n-b4a8196579769f876eaf94a7",
   "quote_text": "Unser Top-Tipp\n\nAnstoß in\n--\n\nTwente vs Ajax Amsterdam –\nAjax gewinnt\n\nDu gewinnst, wenn Ajax Amsterdam gewinnt.\n\n2,80",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-aa4f2114f4c209db9064fd33",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-aa4f2114f4c209db9064fd33",
   "quote_text": "Anis Hadj Moussas Torform macht ihn allerdings zum riskantesten der genannten Tipps.",
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   "observation_id": "n-56dfdac835071667e7c0b200",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-56dfdac835071667e7c0b200",
   "quote_text": "Eine enge Partie scheint daher gut möglich.",
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   "source_info": {
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   "observation_id": "n-2a24e3f8c1189f208cf877a9",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "published_at": "2026-11-07T06:35:00.000Z",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/33/#pick-n-c973e96e03d5ae10e0399263",
   "quote_text": "Weil Heerenveen zuletzt mehrfach ohne Gegentor blieb, ist dieses riskantere Szenario dennoch einen Tipp wert.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
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     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 1,
     "probability": 0.28777,
     "one_in": 3,
     "log10": -0.54,
     "words": "1 in 3",
     "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-long-price-call-long-price-call-3"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "display_name": "Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Away win · 18 Oct 2026",
    "received_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
    "window_kind": "event",
    "cause": null,
    "type_code": null,
    "bucket_code": "z-8d83672824",
    "bucket": "Lone correct call",
    "measure": null,
    "place": null,
    "out_of": null,
    "n_bets": 1,
    "n_events": null,
    "amount": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "ci_level": null,
    "fact": "Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Away win · FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew · 18 Oct 2026",
    "rationale": "Away win called correctly; 4 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (4 named home win). Data: live record. Term: a dated fact.",
    "provenance": "live",
    "rules_version": "catalog-1",
    "methodology_version": "catalog-1",
    "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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    "alt": "Ali Demir · Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Away win · FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew · 18 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record",
    "csv_url": null,
    "embed": "<a href=\"https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ali-demir/#title-lone-correct-call-lone-correct-call\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img src=\"https://forecastrecord.com/b/e-e20fe2da98da2eb7e6c151d8/c-02-z-8d83672824-event-m-light.svg\" alt=\"Ali Demir · Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Away win · FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew · 18 Oct 2026 · Tracked by Forecast Record\" width=\"1136\" height=\"28\" loading=\"lazy\"></a>",
    "neighbours": [],
    "window_words": "On show until 16 Jan 2027",
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    "published_at": "2026-10-20",
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    "badge_label": "Only right of 5 · 18 Oct",
    "scope_words": null,
    "title_id": "zk-8d83672824a7e528323f",
    "evidence_items": [
     {
      "nid": "n-29f4ddc35cbd6fd1d8a7b2c5",
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      "match": "FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew",
      "said_text": "1X2, match result: Columbus Crew at 2.85",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": "4 other tipsters and sources on this match, 0 right (4 named home win)",
      "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/13/#pick-n-29f4ddc35cbd6fd1d8a7b2c5"
     }
    ],
    "evidence_total": 1,
    "badge": {
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     "card_url": "/b/e-e20fe2da98da2eb7e6c151d8/c-02-z-8d83672824-event-card.svg"
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    "profile_anchor": "title-8d83672824a7",
    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "single",
     "priced": 1,
     "unpriced": 0,
     "hits": 1,
     "probability": 0.383142,
     "one_in": 3,
     "log10": -0.42,
     "words": "1 in 3",
     "rule": "market probability (1/price) of this one pick",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-lone-correct-call-lone-correct-call"
   }
  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-e8d773eb29699a689dc2",
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "Only right of 6 · 25 Oct",
    "body": "Only one right of 6 tipsters and sources · Draw · Santos v Bahia · 25 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-e8d773eb2969",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": "/titles/c-02-lone-correct-call/#zk-e8d773eb29699a689dc2"
   },
   {
    "title_id": "zk-b3dc711a627ebea53e70",
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "Correct at 4.70 · 24 Oct",
    "body": "Home win at 4.70 · Aston Villa v Manchester City · 24 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-b3dc711a627e",
    "event_at": "2026-10-24",
    "url": "/titles/e-07-long-price-call/#zk-b3dc711a627ebea53e70"
   },
   {
    "title_id": "zk-8d83672824a7e528323f",
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "Only right of 5 · 18 Oct",
    "body": "Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Away win · FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew · 18 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-8d83672824a7",
    "event_at": "2026-10-18",
    "url": "/titles/c-02-lone-correct-call/#zk-8d83672824a7e528323f"
   }
  ],
  "record_origin": [
   {
    "portion": "live",
    "n": 205,
    "body": "205 recorded before kick-off · since 9 Oct 2026"
   },
   {
    "portion": "found_after",
    "n": 76,
    "body": "76 found after the match"
   }
  ],
  "recent_record": [
   {
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "body": "Only one right of 6 tipsters and sources · Draw · Santos v Bahia · 25 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-e8d773eb2969"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Home win at 4.70 · Aston Villa v Manchester City · 24 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-24",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-b3dc711a627e"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-02",
    "body": "Only one right of 5 tipsters and sources · Away win · FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew · 18 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-18",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-8d83672824a7"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.95 · Santos v Bahia · 25 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-a22848ffd850"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Draw at 3.10 · Sunderland v Leeds United · 25 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-25",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-65d05893311e"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-07",
    "body": "Home win at 3.05 · Sturm Graz v Olympique de Marseille · 22 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-22",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-6da752b665ae"
   }
  ],
  "record_details": [
   {
    "code_name": "M-11",
    "body": "Most recorded: Goals over/under · 58 matches",
    "details_words": "Goals over/under 30/59 (58 matches); Both teams to score 23/52 (51 matches); Double chance and draw no bet 16/39 (37 matches); Match result (1X2) 10/35 (34 matches); Handicaps 12/20 (18 matches)",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Most recorded bet type",
    "rule_href": "/titles/m-11-most-recorded-bet-type/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "C-01",
    "body": "Minority calls · 2/2",
    "details_words": "Result calls on matches with at least 8 other tipsters and sources, where at least 60.0% of them named another outcome.",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Minority calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/c-01-minority-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "X-01",
    "body": "Longest price: correct at 4.70 · 24 Oct 2026",
    "details_words": "Aston Villa v Manchester City · Home win at 4.70 (our pre-match price)",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/18/#pick-n-53f6eee2adcfaee7bb0289e6",
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Correct at a long price",
    "rule_href": "/titles/x-01-correct-at-a-long-price/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-01",
    "body": "Draw calls · 3/23",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Draw calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/e-01-draw-calls/"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "E-06",
    "body": "Non-favourite calls · 4/16",
    "details_words": null,
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "display_name": "Non-favourite calls",
    "rule_href": "/titles/e-06-non-favourite-calls/"
   }
  ],
  "history": []
 },
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 41,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 0,
  "found_post_match": 41,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 106,
  "date_count": 13,
  "span_from": "2025-08-23",
  "span_to": "2025-12-06",
  "line_text": "restored history: 41, of which pre-match archive 0",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Champions League and Europa League matches between 23 August 2025 and 6 December 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 41. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 0. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 41. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 41,
   "share": "0.4878"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 31,
    "roi": "23.7419",
    "ci_low": "-40.0714",
    "ci_high": "93.0000",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 15,
    "roi": "-25.1747",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 40,
    "roi": "13.3875",
    "ci_low": "-44.2432",
    "ci_high": "83.4625",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Champions League",
   "Europa League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 24 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 17 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 96,
    "above": 5,
    "above_share_percent": "5.2",
    "below": 9,
    "within": 82,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.0",
    "not_comparable": 2,
    "disputed": 2,
    "status": "calculated"
   },
   {
    "basis": "closing",
    "basis_words": "the closing market price of the same selection (restored history)",
    "basis_short": "Closing market price (restored)",
    "compared": 13,
    "above": 3,
    "above_share_percent": "23.1",
    "below": 2,
    "within": 8,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.0",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated",
    "sentence": "The author's stated price against the closing price of the same selection: median +0.0% over 13 picks. The price available to followers is the market price, shown separately."
   }
  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/17/#pick-n-012f67b3d4c80c2203d15a5b",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.15",
    "market": "2.47",
    "difference_percent": "-13.0"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/4/#pick-n-979862ab04b0bdae256ba534",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.15",
    "market": "2.46",
    "difference_percent": "-12.6"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/5/#pick-n-68e1c09fb198082042570113",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "1.74",
    "market": "2.38",
    "difference_percent": "-26.9"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/6/#pick-n-752c814fbf3403397c4219e6",
    "basis": "closing",
    "stated": "2.04",
    "market": "1.92",
    "difference_percent": "6.4"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "sportwetten.bild.de",
   "url": "https://sportwetten.bild.de/tipps/seattle-sounders-los-angeles-fc-prognose-08-11-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 86,
  "matches": 53,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -62288,
  "staked_hundredths": 860000,
  "return_percent": "-7.24",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-09",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": false,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 86 settled live picks by Ali Demir before kick-off across 53 matches between 9 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −7.2% on the total staked. Of the 652 predictions we hold for Ali Demir, 381 are linked to matches: 247 were recorded by us before kick-off and 134 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "86",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "53",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−622.88 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−7.2%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −31.8% to +17.9%"
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-09",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8467,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-10",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21727,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27327,
    "n": 17
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30945,
    "n": 23
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-19",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27845,
    "n": 25
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-20",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26095,
    "n": 27
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22545,
    "n": 36
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31845,
    "n": 43
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -42754,
    "n": 46
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-26",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62754,
    "n": 48
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64081,
    "n": 50
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -97629,
    "n": 55
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -90429,
    "n": 64
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106829,
    "n": 72
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -126829,
    "n": 74
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-04",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -110545,
    "n": 78
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48988,
    "n": 83
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62288,
    "n": 86
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 86,
    "matches": 53,
    "match_dates": 18,
    "period_from": "2026-10-09",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -62288,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-03",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -126829,
     "after_picks": 74
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-09",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8467,
     "after_picks": 4
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-09",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 8467,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -21727,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27327,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30945,
      "n": 23,
      "picks": 6
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -27845,
      "n": 25,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-20",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -26095,
      "n": 27,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-22",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22545,
      "n": 36,
      "picks": 9
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-24",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -31845,
      "n": 43,
      "picks": 7
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -42754,
      "n": 46,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-26",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62754,
      "n": 48,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -64081,
      "n": 50,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -97629,
      "n": 55,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -90429,
      "n": 64,
      "picks": 9
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -106829,
      "n": 72,
      "picks": 8
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -126829,
      "n": 74,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-04",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -110545,
      "n": 78,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -48988,
      "n": 83,
      "picks": 5
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -62288,
      "n": 86,
      "picks": 3
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 86 settled live picks by Ali Demir before kick-off across 53 matches between 9 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −7.2% on the total staked. Of the 652 predictions we hold for Ali Demir, 381 are linked to matches: 247 were recorded by us before kick-off and 134 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/ali-demir/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 652,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 271,
   "proven_predictions": 247,
   "proven_checked": 219,
   "proven_measured": 86,
   "proven_dates": 21,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 247,
     "checked": 219,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 86,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 53,
      "net_points_hundredths": -62288,
      "staked_hundredths": 860000,
      "return_percent": "-7.24",
      "interval_low": "-31.80",
      "interval_high": "17.88",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-09",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.2",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 26
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 82,
       "return_main_percent": "-7.49",
       "return_other_percent": "-7.73",
       "settled_excluding_void": 82,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -61384,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -63400,
       "period_from": "2026-10-09",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 68,
       "return_main_percent": "-11.15",
       "return_other_percent": "-11.61",
       "settled_excluding_void": 68,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -75788,
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       "period_from": "2026-10-09",
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      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 86,
      "won": 37,
      "won_percent": "43.0",
      "implied_percent": "47.1",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
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        "picks": 24,
        "implied_percent": "58.0"
       },
       {
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        "picks": 21,
        "implied_percent": "52.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 19,
        "implied_percent": "30.6"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 8,
        "picks": 15,
        "implied_percent": "44.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Asian handicap",
        "won": 4,
        "picks": 7,
        "implied_percent": "44.8"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 110,
      "right": 49,
      "wrong": 60,
      "other": 1
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 134,
     "checked": 76,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 40,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 13,
      "net_points_hundredths": 53550,
      "staked_hundredths": 400000,
      "return_percent": "13.39",
      "interval_low": "-45.27",
      "interval_high": "87.90",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2025-08-23",
      "period_to": "2025-12-06",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 30,
       "return_main_percent": "30.52",
       "return_other_percent": "27.87",
       "settled_excluding_void": 30,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 91550,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 83600,
       "period_from": "2025-08-23",
       "period_to": "2025-12-06"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price, aggregator",
       "series_code": "retro_market_closing",
       "picks": 15,
       "return_main_percent": "-24.07",
       "return_other_percent": "-25.17",
       "settled_excluding_void": 15,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -36100,
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       "period_from": "2025-08-23",
       "period_to": "2025-12-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
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      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": [
       "1 score forecast is waiting for a final score."
      ]
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 40,
      "won": 20,
      "won_percent": "50.0",
      "implied_percent": "53.0",
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      "by_market": [
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        "picks": 15,
        "implied_percent": "53.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
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        "picks": 12,
        "implied_percent": "49.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 6,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "61.5"
       },
       {
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        "won": 3,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "35.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
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  ],
  "interval_low": "-31.80",
  "interval_high": "17.88",
  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 9 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2025-08-23",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-bd9e8c9a6ed742ab77c5f7c6",
   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/31/#pick-n-bd9e8c9a6ed742ab77c5f7c6",
   "match": "SC Paderborn 07 v Eintracht Frankfurt",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/sc-paderborn-07-vs-eintracht-frankfurt-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
   "competition": "Bundesliga",
   "lead_hours": 32.5,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score",
   "author_said": "Both teams to score: no at 2.75",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "2-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "2.75",
   "settled_price": "2.8500",
   "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:40:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T05:57:11.576Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": {
    "outcome": "yes",
    "price": "1.3800",
    "result": "Won",
    "points_hundredths": 3800,
    "picked_favourite": false
   },
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-bd9e8c9a6ed742ab77c5f7c6",
    "quote_text": "Beide Teams treffen: Nein\n\nDu gewinnst, wenn mindestens ein Team nicht trifft.\n\n2,75",
    "fragment_from": 189,
    "fragment_to": 273,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://sportwetten.bild.de/tipps/sc-paderborn-07-eintracht-frankfurt-prognose-07-11-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Ali Demir",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "a2e5d8ac1af4f33e084ed3265406c9f8a3bf6e5fbbec1f7ecf50b777983d2ca3",
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    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:40:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T05:57:11.576Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-06T05:59:38.107Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-9d5a1b79a27f",
     "display_name": "SC Paderborn 07 — Eintracht Frankfurt",
     "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T14:30:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/sc-paderborn-07-vs-eintracht-frankfurt-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "outcome_label": "no",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.75",
     "our_snapshot": "2.8500",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T05:53:34.378Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2026-11-06T05:40:00.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T05:40:00.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-06T05:57:11.576Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
    "origin_detail": null,
    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "no",
     "author_odds": "2.75",
     "market_key": "both_teams_score",
     "choice_key": "no",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Both teams to score: no at 2.75"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "2-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Eintracht Frankfurt."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "series_key": "author_price",
      "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Both teams to score",
      "choice": "no",
      "decimal_odds": "2.75",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-06T05:59:35.041Z",
      "methodology_version": "2.2",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
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    ],
    "corrections": [],
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     "material_author": "Ali Demir",
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  },
  {
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   "evidence": {
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    "quote_text": "Doppelte Chance: AFC Rushden & Diamonds oder Unentschieden\n\nFA Cup\n\nHeute\n16:00\n\nAFC Rushden & Diamonds\n\nVS\n\nMorecambe\n\nNS\n\n2,05",
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  },
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  },
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  },
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   "quote": "Unentschieden nach regulärer Spielzeit\n\nGeschätzter Marktdurchschnitt\n\n3,85",
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  },
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  },
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   "quote": "Unser Top-Tipp\n\nAnstoß in\n--\n\nTwente vs Ajax Amsterdam –\nAjax gewinnt\n\nDu gewinnst, wenn Ajax Amsterdam gewinnt.\n\n2,80",
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   "quote": "Heerenveen\n\nVS\n\nFeyenoord\n\nNS\n\n1,80",
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   "quote": "Unentschieden oder Auswärtssieg (Doppelte Chance)\n\nbei\nbet365 Sportwetten\n\n2,72",
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   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Atlético Madrid gewinnt (Gesamtspielzeit)\n\nbei\nWinamax\n\n1,57",
   "group": "excluded",
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 },
 "pagination": {
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  "continuation": "by_time",
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  "current": true
 },
 "title_tag": "Ali Demir Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record",
 "calculator": {
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  "n": 86,
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  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price"
 },
 "person": {
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     "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
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  "sample": {
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    "text": "−17.14% on 74 settled picks across 47 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "composition_hash": "e6e6d827bbe210b4c533031cda24bfcb180620aec3cc20ad26cbbc9599082824",
    "text": "−15.45% on 65 settled picks across 42 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 3 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 2 new results.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "text": "−19.69% on 54 settled picks across 36 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−17.85% on 60 settled picks across 39 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "reason": "6 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
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   "at": "2026-10-31T04:09:05.944Z",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
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    "text": "−14.96% on 51 settled picks across 34 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−19.69% on 54 settled picks across 36 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-30T08:26:41.528Z",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
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    "composition_hash": "6f0e3b11f540cc8b7f7065df96dab1170d61c881f6e0560a1459da6c3500f185",
    "text": "−14.85% on 49 settled picks across 33 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-14.96",
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    "composition_hash": "24c3b44330f6e6613f99ce8d9c1bdc28ff21370cd5bbd523b9e9dc27c3b936f3",
    "text": "−14.96% on 51 settled picks across 34 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-29T20:28:50.091Z",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
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    "composition_hash": "6aff827f48297796d758878f66c6e619328e00b651811e5c71e18776926314d0",
    "text": "−13.07% on 48 settled picks across 32 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-14.85",
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    "composition_hash": "6f0e3b11f540cc8b7f7065df96dab1170d61c881f6e0560a1459da6c3500f185",
    "text": "−14.85% on 49 settled picks across 33 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   },
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
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    "text": "−12.50% on 40 settled picks across 27 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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    "text": "−13.07% on 48 settled picks across 32 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 4 new results.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-25T05:16:47.249Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-25.2",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
   "category": "new_results",
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    "text": "−10.26% on 39 settled picks across 26 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-25.2",
    "return_percent": "-12.50",
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    "text": "−12.50% on 40 settled picks across 27 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-25T01:37:51.007Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-24.5",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
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    "text": "−2.78% on 36 settled picks across 23 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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    "return_percent": "-10.26",
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    "text": "−10.26% on 39 settled picks across 26 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 2 new results.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-24.4",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
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    "return_percent": "-9.59",
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    "composition_hash": "6dc01cf81f51a0812cef5cc1d87ed7d815ffd0ae5e0295f87250c19585a77e53",
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   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-2.78",
    "settled_picks": 36,
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    "composition_hash": "a3cad40266ebf0a0813f486cfc7a9de55b6793af95d88316cd9cfa3c05b42aa1",
    "text": "−2.78% on 36 settled picks across 23 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "4 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  },
  {
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   "at": "2026-10-24T01:51:11.728Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-24.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-23.4",
   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-6.68",
    "settled_picks": 31,
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    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "8e6a0493b5f74e308382baeacb520a5d2c3ce5389564cfee219582af7f15e904",
    "text": "−6.68% on 31 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-24.1",
    "return_percent": "-9.59",
    "settled_picks": 32,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "6dc01cf81f51a0812cef5cc1d87ed7d815ffd0ae5e0295f87250c19585a77e53",
    "text": "−9.59% on 32 settled picks across 20 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  {
   "id": "zc-5cb7585724c129c21937",
   "at": "2026-10-23T01:17:07.717Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-23.1",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "return_percent": "-8.66",
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    "composition_hash": "ca6faea0721505effe7b4b5e7924b790307b7b3900dadf698be9be82874e3d9e",
    "text": "−8.66% on 30 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-6.68",
    "settled_picks": 31,
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "8e6a0493b5f74e308382baeacb520a5d2c3ce5389564cfee219582af7f15e904",
    "text": "−6.68% on 31 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-22T22:37:17.307Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.6",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.5",
   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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   "before": {
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    "composition_hash": "6c854681a39f25a5410802d4d453988da8a709959b5cc99959416f000fe6f001",
    "text": "−11.14% on 25 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-8.66",
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    "composition_hash": "ca6faea0721505effe7b4b5e7924b790307b7b3900dadf698be9be82874e3d9e",
    "text": "−8.66% on 30 settled picks across 19 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 4 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-22T13:04:00.441Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-22.4",
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   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
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   "before": {
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    "composition_hash": "ffec532307c10345251ad61277aafbb9bcb7e8d3893b0c810e2862c19aa651a3",
    "text": "−9.67% on 23 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "-11.14",
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    "composition_hash": "6c854681a39f25a5410802d4d453988da8a709959b5cc99959416f000fe6f001",
    "text": "−11.14% on 25 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-20T02:26:34.031Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-20.2",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-20.1",
   "url": "/authors/ali-demir/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": {
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    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
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    "composition_hash": "4e89f4ec379d0c5e3acfd664bb042a698063e848e4bb5f0ed2a72861955065a0",
    "text": "−16.07% on 22 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-20.2",
    "return_percent": "-9.67",
    "settled_picks": 23,
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    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot",
    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "ffec532307c10345251ad61277aafbb9bcb7e8d3893b0c810e2862c19aa651a3",
    "text": "−9.67% on 23 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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 ],
 "current_predictions": {
  "total_count": 8,
  "on_date": "2026-11-07T19:52",
  "row_list": [
   {
    "record_id": "n-72d76ef67b35d85a0533e30f",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/32/#pick-n-72d76ef67b35d85a0533e30f",
    "match": "FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/fc-cincinnati-vs-nashville-sc-2026-11-07/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T21:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "MLS",
    "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Nashville SC at 1.5",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T08:42:09.794Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-ec1eebfcfc6fc82977443f81",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/30/#pick-n-ec1eebfcfc6fc82977443f81",
    "match": "Inter Miami CF v Charlotte FC",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/inter-miami-cf-vs-charlotte-fc-2026-11-07/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-07T21:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "MLS",
    "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Charlotte FC at 3.05",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T07:57:34.564Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-507efacd0b98e3c0c6253a28",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/34/#pick-n-507efacd0b98e3c0c6253a28",
    "match": "Seattle Sounders FC v Los Angeles FC",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/seattle-sounders-fc-vs-los-angeles-fc-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T00:00:00.000Z",
    "competition": "MLS",
    "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Los Angeles FC at 1.91",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T08:12:06.402Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-3cfc1b2015ca74ea7881e43d",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/34/#pick-n-3cfc1b2015ca74ea7881e43d",
    "match": "FC Twente v AFC Ajax",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/fc-twente-vs-afc-ajax-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T13:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Eredivisie",
    "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.05",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T07:12:34.824Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-41fb49a518f440d27acce96e",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/34/#pick-n-41fb49a518f440d27acce96e",
    "match": "FC Twente v AFC Ajax",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/fc-twente-vs-afc-ajax-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T13:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Eredivisie",
    "author_said": "1X2, match result: AFC Ajax at 2.8",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T07:12:34.824Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-4cf44573f36b90a487f2bb4e",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/31/#pick-n-4cf44573f36b90a487f2bb4e",
    "match": "Stade Brestois v Olympique Lyonnais",
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    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:15:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Ligue 1",
    "author_said": "Double chance: Stade Brestois or draw at 1.5",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T06:57:08.475Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-a9926bbf9f62978b83cd7aee",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/31/#pick-n-a9926bbf9f62978b83cd7aee",
    "match": "Stade Brestois v Olympique Lyonnais",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/stade-brestois-vs-olympique-lyonnais-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:15:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Ligue 1",
    "author_said": "1X2, match result: Stade Brestois at 2.8",
    "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T06:57:08.475Z",
    "platform": null
   },
   {
    "record_id": "n-b6e274d8415f5c515dbd0411",
    "url": "/authors/ali-demir/picks/33/#pick-n-b6e274d8415f5c515dbd0411",
    "match": "Manchester United v Aston Villa",
    "match_url": "/football/matches/manchester-united-vs-aston-villa-2026-11-08/",
    "kickoff": "2026-11-08T16:30:00.000Z",
    "competition": "Premier League",
    "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: under 3.5 at 1.57",
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    "recorded_at": "2026-11-07T06:27:24.379Z",
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 },
 "counts_by_slice": {
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    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
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    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
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      "period_from": "2026-10-09",
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      "period_from": "2026-10-09",
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     },
     {
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      "period_from": "2026-10-18",
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     },
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      "period_from": "2026-10-09",
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      "small_sample": false,
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     },
     {
      "code_name": "handicap_asian",
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