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 "heading": "Alexandru Doroftei: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 19 settled picks by Alexandru Doroftei recorded before kick-off across 19 matches, 11 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 19 settled live picks by Alexandru Doroftei before kick-off across 19 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −8.5% on the total staked. Of the 136 predictions we hold for Alexandru Doroftei, 50 are linked to matches: 47 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "−8.5%",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 19,
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 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:15:39.062Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
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 "dependency_group": "author:e-e009b19492c8d461e5e1c735",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
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 ],
 "modules": {
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 "affiliate_block": {
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
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 "restrictions": {
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 "page_links": {
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 "entity": {
  "id": "e-e009b19492c8d461e5e1c735",
  "public_name": "Alexandru Doroftei",
  "tracker_number": 2971,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-11",
   "until": "2026-11-07"
  },
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 "headline_number": {
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   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": "-8.5184",
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "calculated",
   "cause": null,
   "n_bets": 19,
   "n_events": 19,
   "n_void": 0,
   "ci_low": "-39.6789",
   "ci_high": "22.8068",
   "ci_method": "cluster_bootstrap",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": "100.00",
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:15:39.062Z",
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   "series_uid": null,
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  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 19 settled picks across 19 matches",
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1017533,
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   {
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1022533,
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1026030,
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-26T12:50:50.095Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1016030,
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1020430,
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-27T22:41:45.076Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1025430,
    "profit_hundredths": 25430,
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-28T20:35:14.296Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1015430,
    "profit_hundredths": 15430,
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   {
    "at": "2026-10-29T20:19:44.786Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 1005430,
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    "at": "2026-10-30T22:25:39.277Z",
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 999630,
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   {
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1004074,
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    "bankroll_hundredths": 1009310,
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    "at": "2026-11-03T22:07:51.657Z",
    "bankroll_hundredths": 999310,
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   {
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   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/8/#pick-n-af27e4abd1beaa04a76aee05",
   "quote_text": "Ponturi:Hoffenheim – Schalke Cota 1.52 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția ” peste 2.5 goluri”",
   "fragment_from": 3134,
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   "source_info": {
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    "speaker": "Alexandru Doroftei",
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    "bundle_id": "459d3306d472f75aa3e42c740318771a2625ccce19f4dfdc08a1c450ba8e4490",
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   "published_at": "2026-11-07T13:52:48.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T16:49:48.238Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T16:59:46.046Z",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "TSG Hoffenheim — FC Schalke 04",
    "competition_name": "Bundesliga",
    "starts_at": "2026-11-08T18:30:00.000Z",
    "url": "/football/matches/tsg-hoffenheim-vs-fc-schalke-04-2026-11-08/",
    "scoreline": null,
    "condition": "scheduled"
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   "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
   "outcome_label": "over 2.5",
   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": null,
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
   "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-07T16:49:48.238Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
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   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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   "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
    "choice": "over 2.5",
    "author_odds": "1.52",
    "market_key": "total",
    "choice_key": "over",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "2.5",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.52"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "kick-off 8 November 2026, 18:30 UTC",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Pending: kick-off 8 November 2026, 18:30 UTC."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "series_key": "author_price",
     "series_label": "At the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.52",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": null,
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     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T16:59:35.486Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
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     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.4900",
     "odds_role": "market_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": null,
     "result_words": null,
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T16:59:46.046Z",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "qualifying_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Alexandru Doroftei",
    "publisher": "Pariuri1x2",
    "forecaster": "Alexandru Doroftei",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/hoffenheim-schalke-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-bundesliga-08-11-2026/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-1c220001fcca3b23b777dd92",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1c220001fcca3b23b777dd92",
   "quote_text": "Cotele la ponturi pariuri ne indică faptul că vom avea parte de un meci în care oaspeții sunt favoriți",
   "fragment_from": 1191,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/alanyaspor-trabzonspor-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-super-lig-08-11-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alexandru Doroftei",
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   "published_at": "2026-11-07T14:23:07.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T16:49:46.045Z",
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   "statement_class": "opinion",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "detected_at": "2026-11-07T16:49:46.045Z",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-fbf67f3288f39d2f7dfbbb42",
   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/8/#pick-n-fbf67f3288f39d2f7dfbbb42",
   "quote_text": "Ponturi:Alanyaspor – Trabzonspor Cota 1.47 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția ” x2 și peste 1.5 goluri”",
   "fragment_from": 3322,
   "fragment_to": 3432,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/alanyaspor-trabzonspor-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-super-lig-08-11-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alexandru Doroftei",
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    "bundle_id": "710451b2b73006da6fea0e99928781257d8cdc775f8ad185033b3611b806b2f7",
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   },
   "published_at": "2026-11-07T14:23:07.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T16:49:46.045Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "not_supported",
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   "cause_code": "not_supported",
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   "odds_set": {
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   "observation_id": "n-10fadd1ce1c3e7bf84f79236",
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   "observation_id": "n-c90f71b271f88551090a921e",
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   "quote_text": "În ultimul meci direct,Union Berlin a învins, scor 1-0.",
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   "quote_text": "Cotele partidei (Betano):\n\nFreiburg –1.50\n\nEgal –4.40\n\nUnion Berlin– 6.30",
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-7431674fc7ae871f0b360b8a",
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   "quote_text": "Ponturi:Freiburg – Union Berlin Cota 1.50 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția „Freiburg marchează peste 1.5 goluri”",
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/freiburg-union-berlin-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-bundesliga-08-11-2026/",
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   },
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   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Team goals over/under 1.5",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "status": "not_named",
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   "quote_text": "Echipele probabile\n\nFC Koln:Marvin Schwaebe, Sebastian Sebulonsen, Joel Schmied, Jahmai Simpson",
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   "source_info": {
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-b4ade038a7791adc92a870b6",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b4ade038a7791adc92a870b6",
   "quote_text": "Cotele la ponturi pariuri ne indică faptul că vom avea parte de un meci din care spectacolul",
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   "source_info": {
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  },
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   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/8/#pick-n-dc7ae28772ef37c30a77dcbc",
   "quote_text": "Ponturi:FC Koln – Bayer Leverkusen Cota 1.42 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția „GG”",
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   "source_info": {
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   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T14:02:13.141Z",
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   "event": {
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   },
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    "choice_key": "yes",
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    "in_words": "Pending: kick-off 8 November 2026, 14:30 UTC."
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    "material_author": "Alexandru Doroftei",
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    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
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   "quote_text": "34 de goluri a marcat Universitatea Craiova în Superliga.",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-5019f1cba40e9776c064c1b1",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-5019f1cba40e9776c064c1b1",
   "quote_text": "Oltenii nu au pierdut nici un duel din ultimele cinci jucate contra clujenilor.",
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   "fragment_to": 2580,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/cfr-cluj-universitatea-craiova-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-superliga-08-11-2026/",
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-389a5e6f6124bebc212a311d",
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   "quote_text": "În ultimul meci direct,scorul a fost egal, 0-0.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/cfr-cluj-universitatea-craiova-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-superliga-08-11-2026/",
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   },
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   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-29f72960b902c1618cb5ad18",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-29f72960b902c1618cb5ad18",
   "quote_text": "Elevii lui Coelho pot profita de eșecul suferit de bucureșteni în această etapă și pot încheia",
   "fragment_from": 2300,
   "fragment_to": 2394,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/cfr-cluj-universitatea-craiova-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-superliga-08-11-2026/",
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   },
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-c6c348be44f2bf1e87d011b8",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-c6c348be44f2bf1e87d011b8",
   "quote_text": "În superliga, formația din Gruia este pe locul 9 cu 18 puncte acumulate și are un singur succes",
   "fragment_from": 1957,
   "fragment_to": 2052,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/cfr-cluj-universitatea-craiova-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-superliga-08-11-2026/",
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    "bundle_id": "f4567371620f2c7d7321d4db2c57447489059a97049336ff538481bbf07c7b68",
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   },
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   },
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
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   "origin_detail": "no_match_linked",
   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-c16778168f5cd9a9062ee78b",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-c16778168f5cd9a9062ee78b",
   "quote_text": "cel mai bun jucător al clujenilor, Andrei Cordea va pleca în această iarnă și nu se știe dacă",
   "fragment_from": 1835,
   "fragment_to": 1928,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/cfr-cluj-universitatea-craiova-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-superliga-08-11-2026/",
    "display_name": null,
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   },
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "methodology_version": "2.2",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ef060412307be9aed7ec3765",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ef060412307be9aed7ec3765",
   "quote_text": "CFR Cluj face o figură frumoasă sub comanda lui Marius Șumudică având în vedere probleme",
   "fragment_from": 1701,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/cfr-cluj-universitatea-craiova-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-superliga-08-11-2026/",
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    "material_removed": false
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   "detected_at": "2026-11-07T10:19:47.757Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "quote_text": "Cotele la ponturi pariuri ne indică faptul că vom avea parte de un meci sub semnul echilibrului",
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   "quote_text": "Ponturi:Farul – Rapid Cota 1.42 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția „Farul marchează”",
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   "observation_id": "n-db7c481212e3acfffac322db",
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   "quote_text": "Ne așteptăm la un meci în care elevii lui Kovac sunt favoriți și credem că vor reuși să marcheze cel puțin două goluri.",
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   },
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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   "observation_id": "n-3bbab4e3212eee348d646360",
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   "quote_text": "Ponturi Borussia Dortmund – Betis: Cota 1.57 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția „Borussia Dortmund marchează peste 1.5 goluri”",
   "fragment_from": 3385,
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   "source_info": {
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e5306e267738881f9fc012ff",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e5306e267738881f9fc012ff",
   "quote_text": "Echipele probabile\n\nSlavia Praga:Nazar Domchak, Tomas Holes, David Zima, Stepan Chaloupek, Tomas Vlcek",
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   "source_info": {
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-fb3d2733179486bba4b6d542",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-fb3d2733179486bba4b6d542",
   "quote_text": "Cotele partidei (Betano):\n\nSlavia Praga–10.50\n\nEgal –6.00\n\nArsenal – 1.27",
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   "source_info": {
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   },
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-1a7ec0e143f4c27719b7a9c8",
   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/7/#pick-n-1a7ec0e143f4c27719b7a9c8",
   "quote_text": "Ponturi Slavia Praga – Arsenal: Cota 1.42 la casa de pariuri Betano pentru selecția „Arsenal marchează 2-5 goluri”",
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   "source_info": {
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/7/#pick-n-84882cbef9321d9c8d911572",
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    "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/un-pont-pe-zi-03-noiembrie-pentru-o-noua-selectie-reusita-mergem-in-liga-campionilor-astazi-atletico-madrid-bayern-munchen/",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
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   },
   "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": {
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    "in_words": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.46"
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "derived": false,
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   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
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    "status": "not_named",
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   "quote_text": "Cotele la ponturi pariuri ne indică faptul că vom avea parte de un meci în care austriecii",
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      "match": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen v SC Freiburg",
      "said_text": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.5",
      "outcome_label": "right",
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     {
      "nid": "n-93c10ac6612e541b3fbc141e",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Lille v Galatasaray",
      "said_text": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.5",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": null,
      "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/4/#pick-n-93c10ac6612e541b3fbc141e"
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     {
      "nid": "n-ab3466a0b009990d8da647af",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "FC Bayern München v Arsenal",
      "said_text": "Both teams to score: yes at 1.52",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": null,
      "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/4/#pick-n-ab3466a0b009990d8da647af"
     },
     {
      "nid": "n-17be405a8e62f42b4bbb7e81",
      "data": "2026-10-21",
      "match": "Club Brugge KV v RC Lens",
      "said_text": "Over/Under 2.5 goals: over 2.5 at 1.47",
      "outcome_label": "right",
      "evidence_price": null,
      "comparison": null,
      "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/4/#pick-n-17be405a8e62f42b4bbb7e81"
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     "contract_version": 1,
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     "hits": 2,
     "probability": 0.440684,
     "one_in": 2,
     "log10": -0.36,
     "words": "1 in 2",
     "rule": "product of the market probabilities (1/price) of every pick in the run",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-correct-run-correct-run"
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  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
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    "code_name": "S-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "8 right in a row · 27 Oct",
    "body": "8 matches in a row, every pick correct · 24 Oct–27 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-6b2d5c9f463c",
    "event_at": "2026-10-27",
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   {
    "title_id": "zk-301bf4157a4c1a1e8bc1",
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "5 right in a row · 21 Oct",
    "body": "5 matches in a row, every pick correct · 17 Oct–21 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-301bf4157a4c",
    "event_at": "2026-10-21",
    "url": "/titles/s-01-correct-run/#zk-301bf4157a4c1a1e8bc1"
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  "record_origin": [],
  "recent_record": [
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "8 matches in a row, every pick correct · 24 Oct–27 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-27",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-6b2d5c9f463c"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "5 matches in a row, every pick correct · 17 Oct–21 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-21",
    "url": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-301bf4157a4c"
   }
  ],
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  "history": [
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "5 matches in a row, every pick correct · 24 Oct–25 Oct 2026 · removed 28 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-28",
    "status": "corrected",
    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "body": "6 matches in a row, every pick correct · 15 Oct–21 Oct 2026 · removed 26 Oct 2026",
    "event_at": "2026-10-26",
    "status": "corrected",
    "cause": "recomputed after a correction to the record",
    "provenance": "live"
   }
  ]
 },
 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 21,
    "above": 2,
    "above_share_percent": "9.5",
    "below": 0,
    "within": 19,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.4",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
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  ],
  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/3/#pick-n-746eb645973abb469615cd41",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.42",
    "market": "1.32",
    "difference_percent": "7.5"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/picks/5/#pick-n-36b5a4be9f1647b19239ee6e",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "1.42",
    "market": "1.35",
    "difference_percent": "5.2"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "pariuri1x2.ro",
   "url": "https://pariuri1x2.ro/pariuri/hoffenheim-schalke-ponturi-pariuri-fotbal-bundesliga-08-11-2026/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-11",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
  "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price",
  "restored": false,
  "headline_kind": "live_snapshot",
  "headline_part": "live",
  "settled_picks": 19,
  "matches": 19,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -16185,
  "staked_hundredths": 190000,
  "return_percent": "-8.52",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-11",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 19 settled live picks by Alexandru Doroftei before kick-off across 19 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −8.5% on the total staked. Of the 136 predictions we hold for Alexandru Doroftei, 50 are linked to matches: 47 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
    "value": "19",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "19",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−161.85 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "−8.5%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −39.7% to +22.8%"
   }
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  "limitations": [],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [
   {
    "date": "2026-10-11",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5000,
    "n": 1
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-15",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12405,
    "n": 3
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-17",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2405,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-18",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7405,
    "n": 5
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-21",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12533,
    "n": 6
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16030,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25430,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-28",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15430,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-29",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5430,
    "n": 11
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-30",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9630,
    "n": 12
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4074,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-01",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9310,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -690,
    "n": 16
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-05",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20690,
    "n": 18
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16185,
    "n": 19
   }
  ],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": {
    "part": "live",
    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 19,
    "matches": 19,
    "match_dates": 15,
    "period_from": "2026-10-11",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -16185,
    "low": {
     "date": "2026-11-05",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20690,
     "after_picks": 18
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2026-10-27",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25430,
     "after_picks": 9
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2026-10-11",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5000,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-15",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12405,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-17",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 2405,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7405,
      "n": 5,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-21",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 12533,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-25",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 16030,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 25430,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-28",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15430,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-29",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5430,
      "n": 11,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-30",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9630,
      "n": 12,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 4074,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9310,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -690,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-05",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -20690,
      "n": 18,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16185,
      "n": 19,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 19 settled live picks by Alexandru Doroftei before kick-off across 19 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −8.5% on the total staked. Of the 136 predictions we hold for Alexandru Doroftei, 50 are linked to matches: 47 were recorded by us before kick-off and 3 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/alexandru-doroftei/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
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   "predictions": 136,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 86,
   "proven_predictions": 47,
   "proven_checked": 43,
   "proven_measured": 19,
   "proven_dates": 20,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 47,
     "checked": 43,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 19,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 19,
      "net_points_hundredths": -16185,
      "staked_hundredths": 190000,
      "return_percent": "-8.52",
      "interval_low": "-39.68",
      "interval_high": "22.81",
      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-11",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.2",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 3
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 19,
       "return_main_percent": "-8.52",
       "return_other_percent": "-7.53",
       "settled_excluding_void": 19,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -16185,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -14300,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
       "picks": 17,
       "return_main_percent": "-6.58",
       "return_other_percent": "-3.64",
       "settled_excluding_void": 17,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -11185,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -6196,
       "period_from": "2026-10-11",
       "period_to": "2026-11-07"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 43,
      "priced": 19
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 19,
      "won": 12,
      "won_percent": "63.2",
      "implied_percent": "68.2",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 10,
        "implied_percent": "69.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 5,
        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "68.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "63.1"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "68.9"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 5,
      "right": 2,
      "wrong": 3,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
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      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 3,
     "checked": 3,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
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      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
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  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
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   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:21:06.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-11T04:19:47.929Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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 ],
 "lead_time": {
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  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
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   {
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    "text": "−11.49% on 18 settled picks across 18 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "+6.21% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "text": "−0.43% on 16 settled picks across 16 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "composition_hash": "5b745a0fd5d3cd8367b5fbf951ae185208f1d5525c49220621a5ea8d701c322d",
    "text": "+4.94% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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    "composition_hash": "ea0018bbec283b15cdf111e75ead7a7b959d5b8d89614d814c98e1846173e2b0",
    "text": "+8.03% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "category": "new_results",
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    "return_percent": "15.43",
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    "composition_hash": "18006669a993b8326e8478f79c5a39a46853146f8ae5177ef6de5b1aa50bc82a",
    "text": "+15.43% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "4.94",
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    "composition_hash": "5b745a0fd5d3cd8367b5fbf951ae185208f1d5525c49220621a5ea8d701c322d",
    "text": "+4.94% on 11 settled picks across 11 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   "at": "2026-10-29T20:28:50.091Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-29.1",
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   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/",
   "category": "new_results",
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    "composition_hash": "1855cc840e6995ffaf8cb40da7c4cff500d5b6b0593490442baf7a34adbe4ac6",
    "text": "+254.30 points on 9 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "15.43",
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    "composition_hash": "18006669a993b8326e8478f79c5a39a46853146f8ae5177ef6de5b1aa50bc82a",
    "text": "+15.43% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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  {
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   "at": "2026-10-28T01:24:12.367Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-28.1",
   "previous_data_version": "2026-10-27.3",
   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/",
   "category": "new_results",
   "category_words": "New results",
   "before": {
    "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
    "return_percent": "22.90",
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    "series_code": "market_price",
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    "composition_hash": "a8d0d4411dbcc013b0b7fc0078dfbf0ab6541300dc92434c57c8fdaa2e51bcdc",
    "text": "+160.30 points on 7 settled picks across 7 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "28.26",
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    "method_version": "2.2",
    "composition_hash": "1855cc840e6995ffaf8cb40da7c4cff500d5b6b0593490442baf7a34adbe4ac6",
    "text": "+254.30 points on 9 settled picks across 9 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "2 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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   "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-27.1",
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   "url": "/authors/alexandru-doroftei/",
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