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 "heading": "Alex Wrigley: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "7 settled picks by Alex Wrigley archived before kick-off across 5 matches, 10 Aug 2024 – 6 Oct 2024: won 2 of 7, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 7 settled archived picks by Alex Wrigley from copies archived before kick-off, across 5 matches between 10 August and 6 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 7 settled archived picks. Of the 20 predictions we hold for Alex Wrigley, 9 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 11 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "7",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 5,
  "of_them_archived": 5
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "f085bd35594d050d107812682a6b38734a8919089b7e3cec931e5559063ceada",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-d112822ec9bc8da53ba79e6c",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
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 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/index.json",
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  },
  {
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  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 },
 "page_links": {
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  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-d112822ec9bc8da53ba79e6c",
  "public_name": "Alex Wrigley",
  "tracker_number": 2042,
  "status": "active",
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  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
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   "until": "2026-10-17"
  },
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    "medium": "website",
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
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   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
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  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
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 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
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  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
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   {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8a1f844b5042a686a762740d",
   "quote_text": "Leeds 4-11\nPortsmouth 7-1\nDraw 4-1",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9af90efd59d7cb0ff13b3df8",
   "quote_text": "expect the goals to flow in north London.",
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "Arsenal (4-3-3): Raya; White, Saliba, Magalhaes, Timber; Partey, Odegaard, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Trossard",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "Midfield recruit Matt O'Riley requires surgery after injuring his ankle in the midweek win over Crawley",
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   },
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "quote_text": "Destiny Udogie could return after being injured at Old Trafford.",
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     "long_before_detection",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "source_info": {
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "source_info": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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  {
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   },
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:48.821Z",
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    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "settlements": [],
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ce662ac3d6128566e1703cdd",
   "quote_text": "could find themselves taken apart again by Postecoglou's chaotic attacking football.",
   "fragment_from": 4090,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:48.821Z",
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   "statement_class": "opinion",
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-05T14:01:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:48.821Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "quote_text": "Spurs have notched 13 times in their last five matches, so they will carry plenty of confidence",
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   "quote_text": "Son is expected to miss out again at the Amex Stadium",
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   "fragment_from": 3124,
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   "fragment_from": 2662,
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "quote_text": "Brighton 19-10\nTottenham 5-4\nDraw 3-1",
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   "source_info": {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-09039cd2e00d26c2786d867a",
   "quote_text": "You can watch Brighton vs Tottenham in the Premier League at 4.30pm on Sunday October 6",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-56ae74e2595cef36eb06deb3",
   "quote_text": "Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you bet £5 on Brighton vs Tottenham",
   "fragment_from": 1173,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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   "withdrawn": false,
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   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:48.821Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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   "correction": null
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-632a23858cf2d581026cbc22",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-632a23858cf2d581026cbc22",
   "quote_text": "Joel Veltman to be fouled 2+ times",
   "fragment_from": 6286,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/brighton-vs-tottenham-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aJUqR4Y7mtbV/",
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    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   },
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  {
   "observation_id": "n-814496ed8afcc7fb26341f3f",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-814496ed8afcc7fb26341f3f",
   "quote_text": "Danny Welbeck to have 1+ shot on target",
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   "source_info": {
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-05T14:01:59.000Z",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8f50a1ddd768dfd3cc9760ca",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-8f50a1ddd768dfd3cc9760ca",
   "quote_text": "Brennan Johnson to score at any time",
   "fragment_from": 5634,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/brighton-vs-tottenham-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aJUqR4Y7mtbV/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:48.821Z",
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   "statement_class": "unpriced",
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   "cause_code": "too_late",
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   "odds_set": {
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-10-05T14:01:59.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:48.821Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-cae7a63bf383fa8cd2503a5c",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-cae7a63bf383fa8cd2503a5c",
   "quote_text": "Tottenham\n2pts 5-4 Betfair",
   "fragment_from": 1558,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/brighton-vs-tottenham-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aJUqR4Y7mtbV/",
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    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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   },
   "published_at": "2024-10-05T14:01:59.000Z",
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   "statement_class": "priced",
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   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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    "display_name": "Brighton & Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur",
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    "starts_at": "2024-10-06T15:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-2"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Tottenham Hotspur",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.25",
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": "2.2600",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
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   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-10-05T14:35:54.000Z",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 1 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
    "author_odds": "2.25",
    "market_key": "1x2",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Tottenham Hotspur at 2.25"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Brighton & Hove Albion 3-2 Tottenham Hotspur."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
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     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
     "decimal_odds": "2.25",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
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     "result_words": "Lost",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:47.355Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
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    {
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     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Tottenham Hotspur",
     "decimal_odds": "2.2600",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:47.361Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/brighton-vs-tottenham-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aJUqR4Y7mtbV/",
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    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
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  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b2f967b42b2e8c3bada4c1e9",
   "quote_text": "Pays out at 16-1 with bet365",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
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    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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   },
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   },
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
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    "flags": [
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    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-29807c1fc6f70eb45cc4ed53",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-29807c1fc6f70eb45cc4ed53",
   "quote_text": "Midfield recruit Matt O'Riley requires surgery after injuring his ankle",
   "fragment_from": 4550,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
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    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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   },
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
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    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-8039e565a03a0be6d0113c34",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-8039e565a03a0be6d0113c34",
   "quote_text": "Gabriel Jesus is out until after the international break",
   "fragment_from": 4315,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
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    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ef81499f3fe75b5fb7079f92",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-ef81499f3fe75b5fb7079f92",
   "quote_text": "Arsenal 4-11\nBrighton 8-1\nDraw 49-10",
   "fragment_from": 1833,
   "fragment_to": 1869,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
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    "bundle_id": "7ddf361d059b56e53bd24e1487c4e07fb0cd97c1df849222e2bc142d8d8948a1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f1539e6606d8cb5b376682eb",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f1539e6606d8cb5b376682eb",
   "quote_text": "Ladbrokes are offering £25 in free bets when you bet £5 on Arsenal vs Brighton",
   "fragment_from": 1134,
   "fragment_to": 1212,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "7ddf361d059b56e53bd24e1487c4e07fb0cd97c1df849222e2bc142d8d8948a1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9890c027a107e23e90adf6aa",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-9890c027a107e23e90adf6aa",
   "quote_text": "Danny Welbeck to score or assist",
   "fragment_from": 6301,
   "fragment_to": 6333,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "7ddf361d059b56e53bd24e1487c4e07fb0cd97c1df849222e2bc142d8d8948a1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4bd306b50fee45063a2fb755",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-4bd306b50fee45063a2fb755",
   "quote_text": "Thomas Partey to have one or more shots",
   "fragment_from": 5986,
   "fragment_to": 6025,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "7ddf361d059b56e53bd24e1487c4e07fb0cd97c1df849222e2bc142d8d8948a1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "not_supported",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "not_supported",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-30514c67e2a10746dc920385",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-30514c67e2a10746dc920385",
   "quote_text": "Kai Havertz anytime goalscorer",
   "fragment_from": 5675,
   "fragment_to": 5705,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "7ddf361d059b56e53bd24e1487c4e07fb0cd97c1df849222e2bc142d8d8948a1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4fccab70aa7a554cc8bd4cc1",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-4fccab70aa7a554cc8bd4cc1",
   "quote_text": "Both teams to score\n2pts 5-6 Betfair",
   "fragment_from": 1500,
   "fragment_to": 1536,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "7ddf361d059b56e53bd24e1487c4e07fb0cd97c1df849222e2bc142d8d8948a1",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:47.210Z",
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Arsenal v Brighton & Hove Albion",
    "competition_name": "Premier League",
    "starts_at": "2024-08-31T11:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Both teams to score",
   "outcome_label": "yes",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.7800",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 7800,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-31T06:32:15.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-30T13:07:05.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:38:33.482Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-31T06:32:15.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 1 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "choice": "yes",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "both_teams_score",
    "choice_key": "yes",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Both teams to score: yes"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "1-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Arsenal 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "005f6fe10558b73d02a388621b74eedbc916369bbd1538a209392fa8607c3480",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "yes",
     "decimal_odds": "1.7800",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 7800,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:47.210Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Alex Wrigley",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
    "forecaster": "Alex Wrigley",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-f16622ee2fcc3d8b8e6c2f3e",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-f16622ee2fcc3d8b8e6c2f3e",
   "quote_text": "Regan Poole, Tom McIntyre, Jacob Farrell and Colby Bishop are all confirmed absentees",
   "fragment_from": 3880,
   "fragment_to": 3965,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "bd428e18eaf039210c790bd7853f7b43c132db8b89db0c2daf6bb4fc5fafdc63",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-ffa1258f1543ba700199b173",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-ffa1258f1543ba700199b173",
   "quote_text": "Both teams to score - No",
   "fragment_from": 5249,
   "fragment_to": 5273,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "bd428e18eaf039210c790bd7853f7b43c132db8b89db0c2daf6bb4fc5fafdc63",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.454Z",
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Leeds United v Portsmouth",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-08-10T11:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-3"
   },
   "market_label": "Both teams to score",
   "outcome_label": "no",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.8000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-09T18:40:04.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-09T18:40:04.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 1 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Both teams to score",
    "choice": "no",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "both_teams_score",
    "choice_key": "no",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Both teams to score: no"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "3-3",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Leeds United 3-3 Portsmouth."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "a5cc908d38a2d47566b7f392135de476ba4faed44744d5befccba9f54407f8cd",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Both teams to score",
     "choice": "no",
     "decimal_odds": "1.8000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.454Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Alex Wrigley",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
    "forecaster": "Alex Wrigley",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-c43c51ab738c6fff416a6df6",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-c43c51ab738c6fff416a6df6",
   "quote_text": "Joel Piroe to score at any time",
   "fragment_from": 5055,
   "fragment_to": 5086,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "bd428e18eaf039210c790bd7853f7b43c132db8b89db0c2daf6bb4fc5fafdc63",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "",
   "cause_code": "too_late",
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9afa95d3babfe83675e98771",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-9afa95d3babfe83675e98771",
   "quote_text": "Leeds to win",
   "fragment_from": 4838,
   "fragment_to": 4850,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "bd428e18eaf039210c790bd7853f7b43c132db8b89db0c2daf6bb4fc5fafdc63",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.445Z",
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Leeds United v Portsmouth",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-08-10T11:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-3"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Leeds United",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.2500",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-09T18:40:04.000Z",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-09T18:40:04.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 1 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Leeds United",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Leeds United"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "3-3",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Leeds United 3-3 Portsmouth."
   },
   "settlements": [
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     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "Leeds United",
     "decimal_odds": "1.2500",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.445Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Alex Wrigley",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
    "forecaster": "Alex Wrigley",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-230a7c2144b275809e241dae",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-230a7c2144b275809e241dae",
   "quote_text": "Leeds -1 on handicap\n2pts Evens general",
   "fragment_from": 1335,
   "fragment_to": 1374,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "bd428e18eaf039210c790bd7853f7b43c132db8b89db0c2daf6bb4fc5fafdc63",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.438Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Leeds United v Portsmouth",
    "competition_name": "EFL Championship",
    "starts_at": "2024-08-10T11:30:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-3"
   },
   "market_label": "European handicap -1",
   "outcome_label": "Leeds United -1",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.7000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-09T18:40:04.000Z",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-09T10:50:02.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-01T00:36:40.569Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": "2024-08-09T18:40:04.000Z",
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": "Added to our record on 1 Oct 2026",
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "European handicap -1",
    "choice": "Leeds United -1",
    "author_odds": "2",
    "market_key": "handicap_european",
    "choice_key": "1",
    "period": "match",
    "line": "-1",
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "European handicap -1: Leeds United -1 at 2"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "3-3",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Leeds United 3-3 Portsmouth."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
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     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "European handicap -1",
     "choice": "Leeds United -1",
     "decimal_odds": "2",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.432Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "948b9e78f702aa6680a02e55cc7869f1ea7f8fcc20c33f43c43b782196c4b1de",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "European handicap -1",
     "choice": "Leeds United -1",
     "decimal_odds": "1.7000",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:22:46.438Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Alex Wrigley",
    "publisher": "racingpost.com",
    "forecaster": "Alex Wrigley",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/efl/leeds-vs-portsmouth-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-aQqij1G9RetU/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "excluded_from_feed": {
  "ads": 5,
  "service": 0,
  "ruleset_version": "3"
 },
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 5,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 5,
  "found_post_match": 0,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 3,
  "span_from": "2024-08-10",
  "span_to": "2024-10-06",
  "line_text": "restored history: 5, of which pre-match archive 5",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League and Championship matches between 10 August 2024 and 6 October 2024 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 5. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 5. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 0. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 5,
   "share": "0.2"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "-100.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 5,
    "roi": "-64.4000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 5 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "racingpost.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240831063215id_/https://www.racingpost.com/sport/football-tips/premier-league/arsenal-vs-brighton-prediction-betting-tips-and-odds-a7Jmx7b9QjKd/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-01",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-17",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 7,
  "matches": 5,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": -32100,
  "staked_hundredths": 70000,
  "return_percent": "-45.86",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-08-10",
  "period_to": "2024-10-06",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 7 settled archived picks by Alex Wrigley from copies archived before kick-off, across 5 matches between 10 August and 6 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 7 settled archived picks. Of the 20 predictions we hold for Alex Wrigley, 9 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 11 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "7",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "5",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "−321 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "−45.9%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "This page combines Alex Wrigley across 2 platforms. The record above counts each prediction once, even when the same pick (match, market and selection) appeared on more than one platform; each platform keeps its own total under “Where Alex Wrigley publishes”.",
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 11 selections in this historical price series, 7 have a pre-match archive copy and 4 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 7,
    "matches": 5,
    "match_dates": 4,
    "period_from": "2024-08-10",
    "period_to": "2024-10-06",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": -32100,
    "low": {
     "date": "2024-10-06",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32100,
     "after_picks": 7
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-09-19",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22100,
     "after_picks": 6
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-08-10",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -30000,
      "n": 3,
      "picks": 3
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22200,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-19",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -22100,
      "n": 6,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": -32100,
      "n": 7,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 7 settled archived picks by Alex Wrigley from copies archived before kick-off, across 5 matches between 10 August and 6 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 2 of 7 settled archived picks. Of the 20 predictions we hold for Alex Wrigley, 9 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 11 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/alex-wrigley/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 20,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 9,
   "proven_checked": 8,
   "proven_measured": 7,
   "proven_dates": 5,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 9,
     "checked": 8,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 7,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 5,
      "net_points_hundredths": -32100,
      "staked_hundredths": 70000,
      "return_percent": "-45.86",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-08-10",
      "period_to": "2024-10-06",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "-49.75",
       "return_other_percent": "-56.25",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -19900,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -22500,
       "period_from": "2024-08-10",
       "period_to": "2024-10-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
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      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 7,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "28.6",
      "implied_percent": "55.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "58.0"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "55.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "46.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "European handicap",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "58.8"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 11,
     "checked": 4,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
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      "matches": 4,
      "net_points_hundredths": -40000,
      "staked_hundredths": 40000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-03-05",
      "period_to": "2025-05-06",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 4,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 4,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -40000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -40000,
       "period_from": "2025-03-05",
       "period_to": "2025-05-06"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
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      "exact_hits": 0,
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      "outcome_checked": 0,
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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      "favourite_hits": 0,
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      "pending": 0,
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      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
     "accuracy": {
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      "won": 0,
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      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "47.2"
       },
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "39.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "35.4"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "32.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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   "n-9afa95d3babfe83675e98771",
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   "n-cae7a63bf383fa8cd2503a5c",
   "n-d41d39e34ff41a62bf8ae1be",
   "n-ffa1258f1543ba700199b173"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 10 August – 6 October 2024 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-10",
  "record_to": "2025-05-06"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-f92ec13507143361a23ca011",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-f92ec13507143361a23ca011",
   "match": "Inter v FC Barcelona",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-05-06T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -12683.0,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona at 2.1",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "2.1",
   "settled_price": "2.5300",
   "published_at": "2025-05-05T09:50:19.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T06:02:03.771Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": "LiveScore",
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-f92ec13507143361a23ca011",
    "quote_text": "Back Barcelona to win at 11/10 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 2933,
    "fragment_to": 2982,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250512081023id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/inter-milan-vs-barcelona-predictions-blaugrana-to-assert-dominance-at-the-san-siro-2025050509501978690/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "34954611b419bed634b0e668b1a1c5a3ec804746e37cc3d714a9703336189d29",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-05-05T09:50:19.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T06:02:03.771Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:50.973Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Inter v FC Barcelona",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
     "starts_at": "2025-05-06T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "3-3"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "FC Barcelona",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.1",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "2.5300",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-05-05T09:50:19.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-05-05T09:50:19.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-17T06:02:03.771Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "FC Barcelona",
     "author_odds": "2.1",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "2",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona at 2.1"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "3-3",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Inter 3-3 FC Barcelona."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "7abe0a20d8b452f8a4e7a867d09eebb6952be41c85e7aae33e0d6aa723ed2247",
      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "FC Barcelona",
      "decimal_odds": "2.1",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:50.950Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "1c265ac1d8f310e63a473f7a7136d52476406fbcc7914d0399d86771d5966a60",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "FC Barcelona",
      "decimal_odds": "2.5300",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:50.973Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Alex Wrigley",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Alex Wrigley",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/inter-milan-vs-barcelona-predictions-blaugrana-to-assert-dominance-at-the-san-siro-2025050509501978690/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "FC Barcelona to win"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-28d1816c6d56bd4b6c521864",
   "url": "/authors/alex-wrigley/#pick-n-28d1816c6d56bd4b6c521864",
   "match": "Real Madrid v Arsenal",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-04-16T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -12978.1,
   "market_code": "both_teams_score_and_result",
   "author_said": "Match result and both teams to score: Real Madrid win, both teams to score: yes at 3",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "3",
   "settled_price": "3.1000",
   "published_at": "2025-04-14T13:27:56.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:06:30.967Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "platform": "LiveScore",
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-28d1816c6d56bd4b6c521864",
    "quote_text": "Back Real Madrid to win & both teams to score at 2/1 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 3969,
    "fragment_to": 4040,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250513032014id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/real-madrid-arsenal-predictions-champions-league-2025041413275713097/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Alex Wrigley",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "f0b03109793fc3c5c10a9f7cd1b01c03735845152b7cb3ae333f37fff253e97d",
     "material_removed": false
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 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
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  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
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  "picks": 0,
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  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
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  "pages": 1,
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     "predictions": 13,
     "settled_picks": 5,
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    "composition_hash": "a05cc32b62df05e3d02d4b8cc5ecf114e6231862d1870910ea8cce4708ea797b",
    "text": "−322.00 points on 5 settled picks across 3 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
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