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"entity_words": "Individual author", "source": { "name": "thestatszone.com", "url": "https://www.thestatszone.com/fleetwood-vs-rochdale-preview-prediction-2026-27-english-fa-cup-first-round-235602" }, "observed_from": "2026-09-28", "observed_to": "2026-11-07", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "state": "settled", "series_code": "market_price", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price", "restored": false, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "headline_part": "live", "settled_picks": 45, "matches": 45, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -28664, "staked_hundredths": 450000, "return_percent": "-6.37", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "status": "calculated", "method_version": "2.2", "short_history": false, "reason": null, "reasons": [], "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 45 settled live picks by Alex Lawes before kick-off across 45 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −6.4% on the total staked. Of the 145 predictions we hold for Alex Lawes, 76 are linked to matches: 71 were recorded by us before kick-off and 5 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.", "numbers": [ { "label": "Settled live picks", "value": "45", "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick", "note": null }, { "label": "Matches", "value": "45", "anchor": "/methodology/#match", "note": null }, { "label": "Net result", "value": "−286.64 points", "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement", "note": "100 points per pick" }, { "label": "Return at our recorded market price", "value": "−6.4%", "anchor": "/methodology/#roi", "note": "95% interval −34.2% to +22.9%" } ], "limitations": [], "other_series": [], "return_over_time": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6953, "n": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1514, "n": 13 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9472, "n": 15 }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5672, "n": 17 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13190, "n": 26 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11717, "n": 29 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19236, "n": 30 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16764, "n": 39 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29164, "n": 43 }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39164, "n": 44 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28664, "n": 45 } ], "return_over_time_parts": { "live": { "part": "live", "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "x_axis": "match_date", "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.", "settled_picks": 45, "matches": 45, "match_dates": 11, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000, "final_points_hundredths": -28664, "low": { "date": "2026-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39164, "after_picks": 44 }, "high": { "date": "2026-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19236, "after_picks": 30 }, "line_drawn": true, "steps": [ { "date": "2026-10-10", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6953, "n": 6, "picks": 6 }, { "date": "2026-10-11", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -1514, "n": 13, "picks": 7 }, { "date": "2026-10-12", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 9472, "n": 15, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-17", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 5672, "n": 17, "picks": 2 }, { "date": "2026-10-18", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 13190, "n": 26, "picks": 9 }, { "date": "2026-10-19", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 11717, "n": 29, "picks": 3 }, { "date": "2026-10-23", "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19236, "n": 30, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-10-24", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -16764, "n": 39, "picks": 9 }, { "date": "2026-10-25", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -29164, "n": 43, "picks": 4 }, { "date": "2026-10-26", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -39164, "n": 44, "picks": 1 }, { "date": "2026-11-07", "cumulative_points_hundredths": -28664, "n": 45, "picks": 1 } ] }, "archived": null }, "author_response": null, "cite": { "text": "Forecast Record recorded 45 settled live picks by Alex Lawes before kick-off across 45 matches between 10 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned −6.4% on the total staked. Of the 145 predictions we hold for Alex Lawes, 76 are linked to matches: 71 were recorded by us before kick-off and 5 first found after the match. 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0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 0, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null }, { "code": "found_after", "title": "Found after the match", "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.", "predictions": 5, "checked": 5, "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices", "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm", "main": null, "same_picks": [], "score": { "score_forecasts": 0, "exact_hits": 0, "exact_rate": null, "outcome_checked": 0, "outcome_hits": 0, "outcome_rate": null, "baseline_matches": 0, "baseline_distinct_matches": 0, "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0, "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null, "favourite_hits": 0, "favourite_rate": null, "price_basis": null, "pending": 0, "void": 0, "recorded_after_kickoff": 0, "lines": [] }, "eligible": { "checked": 5, "priced": 0 }, "accuracy": null } ] }, 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2.0, "picks": 76, "before_kickoff": 71, "after_kickoff": 5, "at_least_2h": 71, "share_2h_plus": 93.4, "median_hours": 72.9, "min_hours": 23.8, "max_hours": 129.1, "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off." }, "baseline": { "contract_version": 1, "series_code": "market_price", "rule": "recorded-line-1.0", "state": "settled", "picks": 23, "settled_picks_all": 45, "excluded": { "market_without_favourite": 21, "no_recorded_line": 1, "favourite_not_settled": 0 }, "staked_hundredths": 230000, "author_net_hundredths": -31346, "favourite_net_hundredths": 35334, "difference_hundredths": -66680, "author_return_percent": -13.63, "favourite_return_percent": 15.36, "author_hit_rate": 52.2, "favourite_hit_rate": 69.6, "picked_favourite_share": 73.9, "by_market": [ { "market_code": "total", "picks": 12, "staked_hundredths": 120000, "author_net_hundredths": -49641, "favourite_net_hundredths": 16456, "author_hits": 4, "favourite_hits": 8, "picked_favourite": 6, "author_return_percent": -41.37, "favourite_return_percent": 13.71 }, { "market_code": "1x2", "picks": 7, "staked_hundredths": 70000, "author_net_hundredths": -9600, "favourite_net_hundredths": -8967, "author_hits": 4, "favourite_hits": 4, "picked_favourite": 7, "author_return_percent": -13.71, "favourite_return_percent": -12.81 }, { "market_code": "both_teams_score", "picks": 4, "staked_hundredths": 40000, "author_net_hundredths": 27895, "favourite_net_hundredths": 27845, "author_hits": 4, "favourite_hits": 4, "picked_favourite": 4, "author_return_percent": 69.74, "favourite_return_percent": 69.61 } ], "return_over_time": [ { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10000, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10000 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -8700, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -8599 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -297, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -196 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -10297, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -10196 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -2897, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": -2796 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T15:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 1103, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 1286 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 8915, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 9098 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -1085, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 16091 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 6515, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 23641 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -3485, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 13641 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 1891, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 19017 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -8109, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 25427 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:15:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 744, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 15427 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -9256, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 22420 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": 2244, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 34370 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -7756, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 24370 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-19T16:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -17756, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 14370 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -12465, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 19661 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-23T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -4946, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 27180 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -14946, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 35134 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T18:45:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -24946, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 41734 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -34946, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 31734 }, { "kickoff": "2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z", "author_cumulative_hundredths": -31346, "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 35334 } ], "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out." }, "pagination": { "per_page": 20, "total": 145, "pages": 9, "page_urls": [ "/authors/alex-lawes/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/2/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/3/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/4/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/5/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/6/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/7/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/8/", "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/9/" ], "groups": { "settled": 45, "pending": 3, "excluded": 97 }, "continuation": "by_time", "page": 1, "first": 1, "last": 20, "author_url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "current": true }, "title_tag": "Alex Lawes Predictions: This Week's Picks & Verified Record", "calculator": { "url": "/tools/luck-or-skill/?n=45&odds=1.91&roi=-6.4&src=record", "n": 45, "odds": "1.91", "roi": "-6.4", "series": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price" }, "person": { "person_id": "o-85ddf26dcc36e995c5511fbc", "type_code": "individual", "name_shown": "Alex Lawes", "main_entity": "e-85ddf26dcc36e995c5511fbc", "identity": { "status": "not_verified", "is_verified": false, "when": null, "source_list": [] }, "platform_list": [ { "entity_ref": "e-85ddf26dcc36e995c5511fbc", "medium": "thestatszone.com", "channel": "author pages", "domain": "thestatszone.com", "source_info": null, "byline": "Alex Lawes", "url": null, "summary": { "statements": 1008, "predictions": 145, "settled_picks": 45, "headline_kind": "live_snapshot", "return_percent": -6.37, "headline_part": "live", "period_from": "2026-09-28", "period_to": "2026-11-07" } } ], "previously": [], "trust_tier": "probation" }, "data_revision": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "updated": "2026-11-07", "current_release": "2026-11-07.2", "data_as_of": "2026-11-07", "method_version": "2.2", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "series_code": "market_price", "sample": { "settled_picks": 45, "matches": 45, "void": 0, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-11-07", "composition_hash": "e6e0ec664b1b5eb0590a8cb7d319df4910cfc7e61ea75048937d7cb647b3d85a" }, "changes_url": "#changes", "corrections_url": "/corrections/" }, "number_changes": [ { "id": "zc-a14115a1eff600cb938d", "at": "2026-11-07T20:05:20.937Z", "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-11-07.1", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-8.90", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 44, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9e7adeb0621b3449bd567ac0caf3b3719e4795f537b032cf8142abc1bacba247", "text": "−8.90% on 44 settled picks across 44 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-11-07.2", "return_percent": "-6.37", "settled_picks": 45, "matches": 45, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "e6e0ec664b1b5eb0590a8cb7d319df4910cfc7e61ea75048937d7cb647b3d85a", "text": "−6.37% on 45 settled picks across 45 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-4ebca9b80e8317c8740b", "at": "2026-10-27T07:47:02.386Z", "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-26.1", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-25.1", "return_percent": "-4.30", "settled_picks": 39, "matches": 39, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "90f145ea04a38085d4f084f55d39bfa118ae0112930955b920ce2132b7777a20", "text": "−4.30% on 39 settled picks across 39 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-27.1", "return_percent": "-8.90", "settled_picks": 44, "matches": 44, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9e7adeb0621b3449bd567ac0caf3b3719e4795f537b032cf8142abc1bacba247", "text": "−8.90% on 44 settled picks across 44 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 4 new results.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-24baad0a9d9a4af7b164", "at": "2026-10-25T03:14:21.528Z", "data_version": "2026-10-25.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "return_percent": "-1.78", "settled_picks": 38, "matches": 38, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "f5aaaf9260bb9aa7b88fa9ce22a0eb46bf4cc287aaebedf37b22cd9212d44e3f", "text": "−1.78% on 38 settled picks across 38 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-25.1", "return_percent": "-4.30", "settled_picks": 39, "matches": 39, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "90f145ea04a38085d4f084f55d39bfa118ae0112930955b920ce2132b7777a20", "text": "−4.30% on 39 settled picks across 39 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-f6f355ec54eee48594c8", "at": "2026-10-25T01:37:51.007Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "-3.26", "settled_picks": 33, "matches": 33, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "81c6f0936ca6704038aed5d4d344e93f3ba1135cce0d1eea320d9fef3be882e4", "text": "−3.26% on 33 settled picks across 33 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.5", "return_percent": "-1.78", "settled_picks": 38, "matches": 38, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "f5aaaf9260bb9aa7b88fa9ce22a0eb46bf4cc287aaebedf37b22cd9212d44e3f", "text": "−1.78% on 38 settled picks across 38 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 3 new results.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-cb9bdebdd04af18af36a", "at": "2026-10-24T16:52:01.947Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-24.3", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "6.41", "settled_picks": 30, "matches": 30, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "348bd80829023046b959f972d61878a19abea981e265a820d792f8ae33926690", "text": "+6.41% on 30 settled picks across 30 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.4", "return_percent": "-3.26", "settled_picks": 33, "matches": 33, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "81c6f0936ca6704038aed5d4d344e93f3ba1135cce0d1eea320d9fef3be882e4", "text": "−3.26% on 33 settled picks across 33 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "3 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-4958bce75fb8097a194c", "at": "2026-10-24T01:51:11.728Z", "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-23.4", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.4", "return_percent": "1.97", "settled_picks": 28, "matches": 28, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b89cc88dce53c8e4c096c3b161eb99270ac4ffec3abe54773f07bd8221497dee", "text": "+1.97% on 28 settled picks across 28 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-24.1", "return_percent": "6.41", "settled_picks": 30, "matches": 30, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "348bd80829023046b959f972d61878a19abea981e265a820d792f8ae33926690", "text": "+6.41% on 30 settled picks across 30 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-b4e6d53c0dc4816b13ce", "at": "2026-10-22T13:04:00.441Z", "data_version": "2026-10-22.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-22.3", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.7", "return_percent": "5.75", "settled_picks": 27, "matches": 27, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9e334d042b46d8005767c1934dd347e90caa3ba12403254ae6e2f363e63c74df", "text": "+5.75% on 27 settled picks across 27 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-22.4", "return_percent": "1.97", "settled_picks": 28, "matches": 28, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "b89cc88dce53c8e4c096c3b161eb99270ac4ffec3abe54773f07bd8221497dee", "text": "+1.97% on 28 settled picks across 28 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-a258817424f68c38120b", "at": "2026-10-19T23:18:20.062Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.6", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.2", "return_percent": "7.08", "settled_picks": 24, "matches": 24, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "8b797113b1c4a83ba91793c410f8786cd3fe2e7dc3d788dfad76d5a353e58a32", "text": "+7.08% on 24 settled picks across 24 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.7", "return_percent": "5.75", "settled_picks": 27, "matches": 27, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "9e334d042b46d8005767c1934dd347e90caa3ba12403254ae6e2f363e63c74df", "text": "+5.75% on 27 settled picks across 27 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-ba5f66620c6ceee7f17b", "at": "2026-10-19T04:51:01.140Z", "data_version": "2026-10-19.2", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-19.1", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.8", "return_percent": "5.22", "settled_picks": 22, "matches": 22, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "f43ec509e225dfb12bb3106a75268989759cf6d88e5478dcea34ce57072cd792", "text": "+5.22% on 22 settled picks across 22 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-19.2", "return_percent": "7.08", "settled_picks": 24, "matches": 24, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "8b797113b1c4a83ba91793c410f8786cd3fe2e7dc3d788dfad76d5a353e58a32", "text": "+7.08% on 24 settled picks across 24 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-8309f9350081669c5988", "at": "2026-10-18T21:29:31.006Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.8", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-18.7", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.1", "return_percent": "6.31", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 15, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ab5cf1fc16dafed58517f97512477d8828732406830c42cc621debd028c696bd", "text": "+6.31% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.8", "return_percent": "5.22", "settled_picks": 22, "matches": 22, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "f43ec509e225dfb12bb3106a75268989759cf6d88e5478dcea34ce57072cd792", "text": "+5.22% on 22 settled picks across 22 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "7 new settled picks from matches played after the previous data version.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 7, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-6f63e6c23578090d82bc", "at": "2026-10-18T01:26:50.135Z", "data_version": "2026-10-18.1", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-17.5", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-12.7", "return_percent": "13.91", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ee662e84789b8bc6640876fba9b19b3ca2dfa36cd04c6b07f18bf0a2739c4d6a", "text": "+13.91% on 14 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-18.1", "return_percent": "6.31", "settled_picks": 15, "matches": 15, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ab5cf1fc16dafed58517f97512477d8828732406830c42cc621debd028c696bd", "text": "+6.31% on 15 settled picks across 15 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-3fe7bb919f609ceeb3ef", "at": "2026-10-12T22:42:38.057Z", "data_version": "2026-10-12.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-12.6", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-12.6", "return_percent": "9.13", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "3e2c4fe6a4edf1a09ce611bbd6c82737530a4a414963bac4e5e2b0a575079109", "text": "+9.13% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-12.7", "return_percent": "13.91", "settled_picks": 14, "matches": 14, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "ee662e84789b8bc6640876fba9b19b3ca2dfa36cd04c6b07f18bf0a2739c4d6a", "text": "+13.91% on 14 settled picks across 14 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-a3026cb37c53d1cb9e8c", "at": "2026-10-12T21:56:56.057Z", "data_version": "2026-10-12.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-12.5", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.8", "return_percent": "7.07", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "aa84d29c29908fd2fda38b3fe2f3cb3300f187a281773f8f45bbaaee32c2e84f", "text": "+7.07% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-12.6", "return_percent": "9.13", "settled_picks": 13, "matches": 13, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "3e2c4fe6a4edf1a09ce611bbd6c82737530a4a414963bac4e5e2b0a575079109", "text": "+9.13% on 13 settled picks across 13 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 1 earlier pick for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 1, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-f958ce54a0f8870ad93f", "at": "2026-10-11T21:54:36.315Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.8", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "return_percent": "10.67", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "5991acc55f1c8d5b616676dd7319b388f6f3097739b070f109218c97f8c6c96a", "text": "+10.67% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.8", "return_percent": "7.07", "settled_picks": 12, "matches": 12, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "aa84d29c29908fd2fda38b3fe2f3cb3300f187a281773f8f45bbaaee32c2e84f", "text": "+7.07% on 12 settled picks across 12 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-aa603d6e5e581fe9a54f", "at": "2026-10-11T20:14:51.236Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "-0.91", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "08bcb8c306317dec53e19655a48741eba2467a221ed27424e74c6dde2c147db5", "text": "−7.26 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.7", "return_percent": "10.67", "settled_picks": 10, "matches": 10, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "5991acc55f1c8d5b616676dd7319b388f6f3097739b070f109218c97f8c6c96a", "text": "+10.67% on 10 settled picks across 10 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture).", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 2, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-ca3dcf9596cdd9893f69", "at": "2026-10-11T19:38:24.634Z", "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-11.5", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "coverage_extended", "category_words": "Coverage extended", "before": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "return_percent": "33.91", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "206ba246059c5adbca5688a99dc3b0d8d9ed370c7679b47ae09a48238186558b", "text": "+169.53 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-11.6", "return_percent": "-0.91", "settled_picks": 8, "matches": 8, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "08bcb8c306317dec53e19655a48741eba2467a221ed27424e74c6dde2c147db5", "text": "−7.26 points on 8 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "Added 2 earlier picks for matches played before the previous data version (found in archives or newly matched to a fixture); also 1 new result.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 3, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null }, { "id": "zc-fae8fddf68c42279e4ac", "at": "2026-10-10T23:53:02.873Z", "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "previous_data_version": "2026-10-10.3", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/", "category": "new_results", "category_words": "New results", "before": null, "after": { "data_version": "2026-10-10.4", "return_percent": "33.91", "settled_picks": 5, "matches": 5, "void": 0, "series_code": "market_price", "price_rule": "independent odds snapshot", "method_version": "2.2", "composition_hash": "206ba246059c5adbca5688a99dc3b0d8d9ed370c7679b47ae09a48238186558b", "text": "+169.53 points on 5 settled picks across 5 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2" }, "reason": "First headline number for this record: 5 settled picks in the series “independent odds snapshot”.", "checked_by": "comparison of data versions", "affected_records": { "added": 5, "removed": 0, "changed": 0 }, "correction_id": null } ], "current_predictions": { "total_count": 2, "on_date": "2026-11-07T19:52", "row_list": [ { "record_id": "n-b7d6e2808a2ff6149daca913", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/8/#pick-n-b7d6e2808a2ff6149daca913", "match": "Valencia v Real Madrid", "match_url": "/football/matches/valencia-vs-real-madrid-2026-11-07/", "kickoff": "2026-11-07T20:00:00.000Z", "competition": "LaLiga", "author_said": "1X2, match result: Real Madrid", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T11:27:35.786Z", "platform": null }, { "record_id": "n-d0d7e9fda286e3d5352ec9f5", "url": "/authors/alex-lawes/picks/8/#pick-n-d0d7e9fda286e3d5352ec9f5", "match": "SSC Napoli v Lazio", "match_url": "/football/matches/ssc-napoli-vs-lazio-2026-11-08/", "kickoff": "2026-11-08T11:30:00.000Z", "competition": "Serie A", "author_said": "Double chance: draw or Lazio", "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off", "recorded_at": "2026-11-05T11:27:33.701Z", "platform": null } ] }, "counts_by_slice": { "portions": [ { "code": "live", "title": "Recorded before kick-off", "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price", "settled_picks": 45, "total_check": true, "market_list": [ { "code_name": "double_chance", "in_words": "Double chance", "url": null, "settled_picks": 12, "won": 6, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -36768, "return_percent": "-30.6", "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-26", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "1.56", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 12 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under 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"code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result", "in_words": "Result and both teams to score", "settled_picks": 5, "won": 3, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 52750, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-24", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "3.07", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 5 }, { "code_name": "double_chance", "in_words": "Double chance", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -30000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-18", "period_to": "2026-10-26", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.76", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 3 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -14709, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-24", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.89", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 3 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 15000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-12", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.75", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 2 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 1500, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-18", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.38", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 2 }, { "code_name": "result_and_total", "in_words": "Result and total goals", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -3800, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-17", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.71", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 2 } ] }, { "code_name": "Serie A", "in_words": "Serie A", "url": "/football/competitions/serie-a/", "settled_picks": 17, "won": 9, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -41450, "return_percent": "-24.4", "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": false, "average_odds": "1.68", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 17, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "double_chance", "in_words": "Double chance", "settled_picks": 7, "won": 4, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -17057, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.49", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 7 }, { "code_name": "total", "in_words": "Over/under goals", "settled_picks": 4, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -22188, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-11", "period_to": "2026-10-19", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 4 }, { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 3, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -5100, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-25", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.59", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 3 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score", "in_words": "Both teams to score", "settled_picks": 2, "won": 2, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 12895, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-18", "period_to": "2026-10-23", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.64", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 2 }, { "code_name": "both_teams_score_and_result", "in_words": "Result and both teams to score", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-24", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "2.62", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 1 } ] }, { "code_name": "Ligue 1", "in_words": "Ligue 1", "url": "/football/competitions/ligue-1/", "settled_picks": 9, "won": 5, 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null, "period_from": "2026-10-10", "period_to": "2026-10-11", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.49", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 2 } ] }, { "code_name": "MLS", "in_words": "MLS", "url": "/football/competitions/mls/", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": "-100.0", "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-24", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 1, "league_markets": [ { "code_name": "1x2", "in_words": "Match result", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 0, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": -10000, "return_percent": null, "period_from": "2026-10-24", "period_to": "2026-10-24", "small_sample": true, "average_odds": "1.85", "odds_from_author": 0, "odds_from_snapshot": 1 } ] }, { "code_name": "Premier League", "in_words": "Premier League", "url": "/football/competitions/premier-league/", "settled_picks": 1, "won": 1, "void": 0, "net_points_hundredths": 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