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 "heading": "Alberto Del Valle: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "Verified record: 17 settled picks by Alberto Del Valle recorded before kick-off across 13 matches, 11 Oct 2026 – 7 Nov 2026.",
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  "body": "Forecast Record recorded 17 settled live picks by Alberto Del Valle before kick-off across 13 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +25.5% on the total staked. Of the 308 predictions we hold for Alberto Del Valle, 67 are linked to matches: 47 were recorded by us before kick-off and 20 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
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 "data_date": "2026-11-07T18:06:51.342Z",
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  "public_name": "Alberto Del Valle",
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   "quote_text": "El conservador\n\nCarlos Alcaraz gana el partido\n\nCuota 1.20",
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   "quote_text": "Estadística\n\nJacksonville Jaguars\n\nBaltimore Ravens\n\nBalance\n\n5-2\n\n4-4",
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   "quote_text": "Tyler Huntley también se lesionó en ese encuentro, por lo que Joe Fagnano será titular este viernes.",
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    "chance": {
     "contract_version": 1,
     "kind": "streak",
     "priced": 1,
     "unpriced": 4,
     "hits": 1,
     "probability": 0.708466,
     "one_in": 1,
     "log10": -0.15,
     "words": "about even",
     "rule": "product of the market probabilities (1/price) of every pick in the run",
     "note": "market prices include the bookmaker margin, so the chance is slightly overstated — a cautious figure"
    },
    "embed_anchor": "title-correct-run"
   }
  ],
  "publication_mode": "top20",
  "empty_reason": null,
  "rules_version": "catalog-1",
  "insufficient": [],
  "badges_on_page": 0,
  "header_titles": [
   {
    "title_id": "zk-6e41dbd444b91c27e656",
    "code_name": "S-01",
    "title_tier": "dated_record",
    "badge_label": "4 right in a row · 11 Oct",
    "body": "4 matches in a row, every pick correct · 10 Oct–11 Oct 2026",
    "tier": null,
    "provenance": "live",
    "anchor_id": "title-6e41dbd444b9",
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    "provenance": "live",
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 "retro": null,
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "threshold_percent": "5",
  "rows": [
   {
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "basis_words": "our market price for the same selection when we first recorded the pick (median of bookmakers in our price feed; failing that, the first price within 2 hours after, always before kick-off)",
    "basis_short": "Our market price when we first recorded the pick",
    "compared": 18,
    "above": 2,
    "above_share_percent": "11.1",
    "below": 1,
    "within": 15,
    "median_difference_percent": "0.5",
    "not_comparable": 0,
    "disputed": 0,
    "status": "calculated"
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  "examples": [
   {
    "url": "/authors/alberto-del-valle/picks/9/#pick-n-52a01c0ae3adf0ec4de44884",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "2.16",
    "market": "4.00",
    "difference_percent": "-46.0"
   },
   {
    "url": "/authors/alberto-del-valle/picks/13/#pick-n-e89b458dfa8151b8a271a348",
    "basis": "snapshot",
    "stated": "3.40",
    "market": "3.20",
    "difference_percent": "6.2"
   }
  ],
  "method": "Difference = the author's stated price ÷ the market price of the same selection − 1. A pick counts as above the market when the stated price is more than 5% higher. Each basis is its own comparison; they are never added together. A pair whose prices differ more than twofold is marked “price disputed”: it is probably not the same selection, so it is left out of this comparison and of every return at the author’s price until a manual check confirms the price. A price that the quoted text does not give is marked “price disputed” in the same way."
 },
 "record_summary": {
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  "entity_words": "Individual author",
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  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-11-07",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "market_price",
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  "restored": false,
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  "matches": 13,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 43338,
  "staked_hundredths": 170000,
  "return_percent": "25.49",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2026-10-11",
  "period_to": "2026-11-07",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "2.2",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record recorded 17 settled live picks by Alberto Del Valle before kick-off across 13 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +25.5% on the total staked. Of the 308 predictions we hold for Alberto Del Valle, 67 are linked to matches: 47 were recorded by us before kick-off and 20 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
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   {
    "label": "Settled live picks",
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    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "13",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+433.38 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "value": "+25.5%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": "95% interval −32.4% to +81.9%"
   }
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    "date": "2026-10-11",
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   {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 6067,
    "n": 4
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-24",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 46336,
    "n": 7
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-25",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77959,
    "n": 9
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-27",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 67959,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-10-31",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 56441,
    "n": 14
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-03",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 63338,
    "n": 15
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-06",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 53338,
    "n": 16
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-11-07",
    "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43338,
    "n": 17
   }
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  "return_over_time_parts": {
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    "label": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "series_code": "market_price",
    "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. Each pick was recorded by us before kick-off and settled after the match.",
    "settled_picks": 17,
    "matches": 13,
    "match_dates": 9,
    "period_from": "2026-10-11",
    "period_to": "2026-11-07",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 43338,
    "low": {
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     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
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     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77959,
     "after_picks": 9
    },
    "line_drawn": true,
    "steps": [
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      "picks": 1
     },
     {
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      "picks": 3
     },
     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 46336,
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      "picks": 3
     },
     {
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      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 77959,
      "n": 9,
      "picks": 2
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-27",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 67959,
      "n": 10,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-10-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 56441,
      "n": 14,
      "picks": 4
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-03",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 63338,
      "n": 15,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-06",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 53338,
      "n": 16,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2026-11-07",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 43338,
      "n": 17,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   },
   "archived": null
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record recorded 17 settled live picks by Alberto Del Valle before kick-off across 13 matches between 11 October and 7 November 2026. At our recorded market prices these picks returned +25.5% on the total staked. Of the 308 predictions we hold for Alberto Del Valle, 67 are linked to matches: 47 were recorded by us before kick-off and 20 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/alberto-del-valle/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "2.2"
  },
  "origin": {
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   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 241,
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   "proven_checked": 45,
   "proven_measured": 17,
   "proven_dates": 15,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 47,
     "checked": 45,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": {
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      "net_points_hundredths": 43338,
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      "return_percent": "25.49",
      "interval_low": "-32.44",
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      "interval_note": null,
      "period_from": "2026-10-11",
      "period_to": "2026-11-07",
      "method_version": "2.2",
      "snapshot_delay_median_hours": "0.0",
      "snapshot_delay_max_hours": "0.0",
      "checked_after_kickoff_picks": 7
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "author_price",
       "picks": 16,
       "return_main_percent": "24.51",
       "return_other_percent": "12.62",
       "settled_excluding_void": 16,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 39223,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 20200,
       "period_from": "2026-10-22",
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      },
      {
       "price": "Closing price",
       "series_code": "closing_live",
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       "return_main_percent": "33.34",
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       "net_other_points_hundredths": 35890,
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      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
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      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
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      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     "accuracy": {
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      "won_percent": "64.7",
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      "by_market": [
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        "picks": 6,
        "implied_percent": "54.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 4,
        "implied_percent": "34.9"
       },
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "55.8"
       },
       {
        "market": "Double chance",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 2,
        "implied_percent": "65.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Both teams to score",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "65.3"
       },
       {
        "market": "Team goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "66.9"
       }
      ]
     },
     "reviewed_after": {
      "predictions": 20,
      "right": 12,
      "wrong": 8,
      "other": 0
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
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      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 20,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
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      "outcome_checked": 0,
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      "baseline_matches": 0,
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      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
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      "pending": 0,
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      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
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     },
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    }
   ]
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  ],
  "interval_low": "-32.44",
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  "caption": "Recorded before kick-off, at our recorded market price · 100 points per pick · 11 October – 7 November 2026 · Calculated · picks settled under method v2.2",
  "record_from": "2026-10-09",
  "record_to": "2026-11-07"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
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   "url": "/authors/alberto-del-valle/picks/16/#pick-n-7c79e678176641257ea33de8",
   "match": "Málaga CF v Real Racing Club",
   "match_url": "/football/matches/malaga-cf-vs-real-racing-club-2026-11-07/",
   "kickoff": "2026-11-07T13:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "LaLiga",
   "lead_hours": 32.3,
   "market_code": "total",
   "author_said": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.65",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "1-2",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "market_price",
   "series_short": "odds snapshot",
   "author_price": "2.65",
   "settled_price": "2.6300",
   "published_at": "2026-11-06T04:32:54.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-11-06T04:42:01.730Z",
   "origin": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
   "record_part": "live",
   "record_part_words": "Recorded before kick-off",
   "in_headline": true,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
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    "quote_text": "Más de 3,5 goles\n\nCuota 2.65",
    "fragment_from": 3464,
    "fragment_to": 3492,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://betbrothers.es/pronosticos-deportivos/malaga-racing-santander-la-liga-2026/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Alberto Del Valle",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "19748d235202df020de952c9dbaf445e94e08696996de663b2aae578f7ac80e8",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2026-11-06T04:32:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-11-06T04:42:01.730Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T09:13:05.616Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "recognised",
    "cause": null,
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": "s-183cfaaa8dc4",
     "display_name": "Málaga CF — Real Racing Club",
     "competition_name": "LaLiga",
     "starts_at": "2026-11-07T13:00:00.000Z",
     "url": "/football/matches/malaga-cf-vs-real-racing-club-2026-11-07/",
     "scoreline": "1-2",
     "condition": "finished"
    },
    "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
    "outcome_label": "over 3.5",
    "odds_set": {
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     "our_snapshot": "2.6300",
     "our_snapshot_at": "2026-11-06T04:39:26.558Z",
     "our_snapshot_source": "market snapshot",
     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "recorded_pre_match",
    "provenance_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2026-11-06T04:32:54.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-11-06T04:42:01.730Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "recorded_before_kickoff",
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    "origin_words": "Recorded by us before kick-off",
    "added_on": null,
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    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 3.5",
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     "market_key": "total",
     "choice_key": "over",
     "period": "match",
     "line": "3.5",
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Over/Under 3.5 goals: over 3.5 at 2.65"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "1-2",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Málaga CF 1-2 Real Racing Club."
    },
    "settlements": [
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      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Over/Under 3.5 goals",
      "choice": "over 3.5",
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Yo creo que los Cowboys pueden hacer un partido tan bueno como para ganar por un margen bastante amplio como este. Los Buccaneers no han visto luz en este inicio de NFL y no creo que este sea el…",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T19:17:02.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:58:44.993Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4fad7853d972fc326849b043",
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   "quote": "Baskonia +1,5 puntos",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T15:48:35.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:53:04.390Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-537e794b742525d5ecbdec27",
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   "competition": null,
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   "market_code": null,
   "author_said": null,
   "quote": "Yo creo que Baskonia ganará el partido",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T15:48:35.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:53:04.390Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
   "in_headline": false,
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  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-a09fefdddb9442dbe54a22d9",
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   "quote": "Zalgiris +5,5 puntos",
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
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   "published_at": "2026-10-07T15:42:40.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:45:28.072Z",
   "origin": "Date as stated by the source; no match is linked to this statement",
   "record_part": "unlinked",
   "record_part_words": "Without a match page",
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 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 47,
  "before_kickoff": 47,
  "after_kickoff": 0,
  "at_least_2h": 47,
  "share_2h_plus": 100.0,
  "median_hours": 16.4,
  "min_hours": 11.6,
  "max_hours": 43.5,
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 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
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  "by_market": [
   {
    "market_code": "1x2",
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    "favourite_hits": 2,
    "picked_favourite": 2,
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    "favourite_return_percent": 49.75
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    "market_code": "both_teams_score",
    "picks": 1,
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    "picked_favourite": 1,
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    "favourite_return_percent": 53.19
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  "return_over_time": [
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    "kickoff": "2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 4545,
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   },
   {
    "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:15:00.000Z",
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    "favourite_cumulative_hundredths": 9864
   },
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    "kickoff": "2026-10-31T13:00:00.000Z",
    "author_cumulative_hundredths": 15269,
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   }
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 },
 "title_tag": "Alberto Del Valle Predictions: Picks & Verified Record",
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 "person": {
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 },
 "number_changes": [
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   },
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    "text": "+30.94% on 11 settled picks across 8 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   },
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    "text": "+389.29 points on 6 settled picks across 4 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
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   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
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    "composition_hash": "6168e971c026359ddf31ab75152f3d5ff1145fa22c727efc8aa62405550c0039",
    "text": "−13.40 points on 3 settled picks across 2 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
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   "after": {
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    "composition_hash": "e1e7740b45e1c118883f5bfb56ecc9b999d7c880c604694f3875030d0e838020",
    "text": "+36.10 points on 4 settled picks across 3 matches · independent odds snapshot · method 2.2"
   },
   "reason": "1 new settled pick from matches played after the previous data version.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
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   },
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  },
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   "url": "/authors/alberto-del-valle/",
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}
