{
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 "language": "en",
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 "translations": [],
 "heading": "Aidan Perkins: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "4 settled picks by Aidan Perkins archived before kick-off across 4 matches, 31 Aug 2024 – 1 Oct 2024: won 3 of 4, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 4 settled archived picks by Aidan Perkins from copies archived before kick-off, across 4 matches between 31 August and 1 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 3 of 4 settled archived picks. Of the 18 predictions we hold for Aidan Perkins, 4 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "4",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
 "indexable": false,
 "noindex_reason": "too_few_settled",
 "indexing_threshold": {
  "settled_count": 4,
  "date_count": 3,
  "required_settled": 10,
  "required_dates": 2,
  "live_count": 0,
  "restored_count": 14,
  "of_them_archived": 4
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "built_at": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
 "lastmod": "2026-11-08T02:12:33.000Z",
 "content_hash": null,
 "meaning_hash": "587ae466b6b2ada251efa4b616d340face0913cf4449f6fda5890637575233bf",
 "dependency_group": "author:e-52caa308055dea7f8565bace",
 "release_id": "20261107-195223",
 "markup": [
  {
   "type_code": "WebPage",
   "allowed": true,
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  },
  {
   "type_code": "Organization",
   "allowed": true,
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  },
  {
   "type_code": "Person",
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  }
 ],
 "exports": [
  {
   "type_code": "json",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/index.json",
   "bytes": null
  },
  {
   "type_code": "csv",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/picks.csv",
   "bytes": null
  }
 ],
 "modules": {
  "affiliate": true,
  "api": true,
  "compare_yourself": false
 },
 "affiliate_block": {
  "container": true,
  "request_url": "/partnery/moi",
  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
  "name_withdrawn": false,
  "tracker_number": null,
  "withdrawn_quotes": [],
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  "suspended_records": [],
  "withdrawal_log_number": 0
 },
 "page_links": {
  "methodology": "/methodology/",
  "right_of_reply": "/right-of-reply/",
  "source_coverage": "/coverage/",
  "corrections_log": "/corrections/",
  "api": "/api/",
  "claim": "/claim/"
 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-52caa308055dea7f8565bace",
  "public_name": "Aidan Perkins",
  "tracker_number": 2683,
  "status": "active",
  "inactive_since": null,
  "verified_creator": false,
  "observation_period": {
   "since": "2026-10-09",
   "until": "2026-10-09"
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "medium": "website",
    "handle": null,
    "url": null,
    "link_confirmed": false,
    "show": true
   }
  ],
  "comment": null
 },
 "headline_number": {
  "metric": {
   "metric_id": "p-e-52caa308055dea7f8565bace-roi-market-price-90d-z99",
   "code_name": "roi_market_price",
   "display_name": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot",
   "window_kind": "90d",
   "window_from": "2026-08-09",
   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
   "amount": null,
   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
   "series_key": "market_price",
   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
  "average_odds": null,
  "odds_from_author": null,
  "odds_from_snapshot": null
 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
  "series_key": null,
  "series_label": "No level stake placed",
  "bankroll_hundredths": 1000000,
  "reserve_hundredths": 0,
  "issued_total_hundredths": 1000000,
  "initial_hundredths": 1000000,
  "stake_hundredths": 10000,
  "top_up_count": 0,
  "profit_hundredths": 0,
  "rewards_off": null,
  "data_points": [],
  "top_ups": [],
  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
  "detected": 95,
  "recognised": 18,
  "accepted": 18,
  "executed": 18,
  "calculated": 14,
  "gaps": []
 },
 "record_counts": {
  "dictionary_version": "1",
  "statements": 95,
  "of_them_restored": 95,
  "not_predictions": {
   "opinions": 5,
   "not_about_a_match": 72,
   "unclassified": 0
  },
  "predictions": 18,
  "predictions_restored": 18,
  "matches": 0,
  "admitted": 18,
  "qualifying_picks": 18,
  "qualifying_picks_restored": 18,
  "settled_picks": 14,
  "settled_picks_restored": 14,
  "series_list": [
   {
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    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 2,
    "matches": 13,
    "operations_settled": 13,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
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    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.0"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "derived": false,
    "is_restored": true,
    "qualifying_picks": 15,
    "settled_picks": 13,
    "void": 0,
    "pending_picks": 2,
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    "operations_settled": 13,
    "stakes_hundredths": [
     10000
    ],
    "methodologies": [
     "retro-1.1"
    ],
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   }
  ],
  "gaps": [],
  "duplicates": 0,
  "junk": {},
  "dictionary_url": "/methodology/#words"
 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-82b3bdd807d8bf69bf5e2268",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-82b3bdd807d8bf69bf5e2268",
   "quote_text": "The latest Crvena zvezda vs Barcelona odds are available on LiveScore Bet",
   "fragment_from": 1351,
   "fragment_to": 1424,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241208155942id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/crvena-zvezda-barcelona-predictions-champions-league-2024110416471904250/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "293023212287e6b1a8b07bc61abf4d2d1fde2d6eaa5b3d97dc82bd955f339e0f",
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   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
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   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
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   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-143cf7b056d1f8ae7614922a",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-143cf7b056d1f8ae7614922a",
   "quote_text": "Peter Olayinka and Ognjen Mimovic are both set to miss out again for the hosts due to injury",
   "fragment_from": 965,
   "fragment_to": 1057,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241208155942id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/crvena-zvezda-barcelona-predictions-champions-league-2024110416471904250/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "293023212287e6b1a8b07bc61abf4d2d1fde2d6eaa5b3d97dc82bd955f339e0f",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4ada20801eb86f5fabc416e4",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-4ada20801eb86f5fabc416e4",
   "quote_text": "Barca should ease to a comfortable victory in Belgrade to maintain their impressive form overall this season, while condemning Crvena zvezda to another defeat in the process.",
   "fragment_from": 2298,
   "fragment_to": 2472,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241208155942id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/crvena-zvezda-barcelona-predictions-champions-league-2024110416471904250/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "293023212287e6b1a8b07bc61abf4d2d1fde2d6eaa5b3d97dc82bd955f339e0f",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "unpriced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": "disputed_reading",
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Barcelona",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2024-11-06T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": null
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "FC Barcelona",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.2400",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "unknown",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "FC Barcelona",
    "author_odds": null,
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "2",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "unknown",
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "896b7f8a9148b4cd39df1263c87fd355e883f1677b773327f3c62b82004f2b44",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "FC Barcelona",
     "decimal_odds": "1.2400",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "skipped",
     "status_text": "Not executed: ",
     "result": "unknown",
     "result_words": "Pending",
     "change_hundredths": null,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:28:13.347Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "prediction",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
    "publisher": "livescore.com",
    "forecaster": "Aidan Perkins",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/crvena-zvezda-barcelona-predictions-champions-league-2024110416471904250/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-88c0b7c2a964622a2f0d8f23",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-88c0b7c2a964622a2f0d8f23",
   "quote_text": "Back Raphinha to score at any time at 31/20 with LiveScore Bet.",
   "fragment_from": 3217,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241208155942id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/crvena-zvezda-barcelona-predictions-champions-league-2024110416471904250/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "293023212287e6b1a8b07bc61abf4d2d1fde2d6eaa5b3d97dc82bd955f339e0f",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.332Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Barcelona",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2024-11-06T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "2-5"
   },
   "market_label": "Player to score",
   "outcome_label": "Raphinha to score",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.55",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 15500,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Player to score",
    "choice": "Raphinha to score",
    "author_odds": "2.55",
    "market_key": "player_to_score",
    "choice_key": "yes",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "player_goals",
    "in_words": "Player to score: Raphinha to score at 2.55"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "2-5",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was FK Crvena Zvezda 2-5 FC Barcelona."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "e92f1640338341cde17e17f708aaff83c56bd3c04096c7512d4e81ee02a7bc72",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Player to score",
     "choice": "Raphinha to score",
     "decimal_odds": "2.55",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 15500,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:07.332Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
    "publisher": "livescore.com",
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    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-08-29T12:27:54.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:33:50.272Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4909a566045b068a84b377a3",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4909a566045b068a84b377a3",
   "quote_text": "Edon Zhegrova, Remy Cabella, Samuel Umtiti and Tiago Santos are all set to be ruled out.",
   "fragment_from": 1475,
   "fragment_to": 1563,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250319233159id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/borussia-dortmund-vs-lille-predictions-bvb-to-take-charge-on-home-turf-2025030211145971029/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
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    "bundle_id": "560d9345cdd81b0da5b9dbc5b83776004ba1cd3cf2997da103a6e11edd59b4f3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:02.844Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
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   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:02.844Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-1d7630ce942055ea50607df4",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-1d7630ce942055ea50607df4",
   "quote_text": "Felix Nmecha and Filippo Mane remain absent for Dortmund",
   "fragment_from": 1193,
   "fragment_to": 1249,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250319233159id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/borussia-dortmund-vs-lille-predictions-bvb-to-take-charge-on-home-turf-2025030211145971029/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "560d9345cdd81b0da5b9dbc5b83776004ba1cd3cf2997da103a6e11edd59b4f3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:02.844Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
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   "odds_set": {
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    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:02.844Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-22c5978483fb6d7c726eb8b9",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-22c5978483fb6d7c726eb8b9",
   "quote_text": "Back Borussia Dortmund to win and both teams to score at 11/5 with LiveScore Bet.",
   "fragment_from": 3254,
   "fragment_to": 3335,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250319233159id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/borussia-dortmund-vs-lille-predictions-bvb-to-take-charge-on-home-turf-2025030211145971029/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "560d9345cdd81b0da5b9dbc5b83776004ba1cd3cf2997da103a6e11edd59b4f3",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:02.844Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.869Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Borussia Dortmund v Lille",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2025-03-04T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-1"
   },
   "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score",
   "outcome_label": "Borussia Dortmund win, both teams to score: yes",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "3.2",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "3.4750",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-03-02T12:00:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:32:02.844Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score",
    "choice": "Borussia Dortmund win, both teams to score: yes",
    "author_odds": "3.2",
    "market_key": "both_teams_score_and_result",
    "choice_key": "1-yes",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Match result and both teams to score: Borussia Dortmund win, both teams to score: yes at 3.2"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
    "scoreline": "1-1",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Lille."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "bd2c9fac57929ef221dec0fe817c88e3938a2655da9f79f53f237ed1766b7c3c",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score",
     "choice": "Borussia Dortmund win, both teams to score: yes",
     "decimal_odds": "3.2",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.863Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "a8424cda16370ea2986a9de842f9ac000ef216640e71f45ec2d44bf3f6cfdf93",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Match result and both teams to score",
     "choice": "Borussia Dortmund win, both teams to score: yes",
     "decimal_odds": "3.4750",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.869Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
    "publisher": "livescore.com",
    "forecaster": "Aidan Perkins",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/borussia-dortmund-vs-lille-predictions-bvb-to-take-charge-on-home-turf-2025030211145971029/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-fb0a8b01607bc8062e508e00",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-fb0a8b01607bc8062e508e00",
   "quote_text": "Vincenzo Italiano has several injury issues ahead of Wednesday's tie",
   "fragment_from": 780,
   "fragment_to": 848,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241214101303id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bologna-vs-lille-predictions-les-dogues-to-maintain-top-eight-push-2024112517484846638/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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    "bundle_id": "ed61b8a9cc337028030a2a86e58d66eacbd414f42de5a34b4b8d857095057d16",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:30:20.867Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": null,
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-25T18:30:12.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:30:20.867Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-752274e8fd69e116d29cdb5e",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-752274e8fd69e116d29cdb5e",
   "quote_text": "Recommended bet: Lille to win",
   "fragment_from": 403,
   "fragment_to": 432,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250124231424id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bologna-lille-predictions-champions-league-2024112517484846638/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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    "bundle_id": "b71026b58949f8d5d9826ef1a172a747c9767111a3261e934dbcf701d93548da",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:28:40.525Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
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   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
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    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
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   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-25T18:30:12.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:28:40.525Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-25b16f4e5f3f14b870fd56b1",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-25b16f4e5f3f14b870fd56b1",
   "quote_text": "Back Lille to win at 19/10 with LiveScore Bet.",
   "fragment_from": 3095,
   "fragment_to": 3141,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250124231424id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bologna-lille-predictions-champions-league-2024112517484846638/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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    "bundle_id": "b71026b58949f8d5d9826ef1a172a747c9767111a3261e934dbcf701d93548da",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": "2024-11-25T18:30:12.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:28:40.525Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.818Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": {
    "event_id": null,
    "display_name": "Bologna v Lille",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2024-11-27T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "1-2"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "Lille",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "2.9",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "3.3200",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "win",
   "simulation_change_hundredths": 23200,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": "ours",
   "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": "2024-11-25T18:30:12.000Z",
    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2024-11-25T18:30:12.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:28:40.525Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "Lille",
    "author_odds": "2.9",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "2",
    "period": "match",
    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: Lille at 2.9"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "1-2",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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  {
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    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "source_info": {
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    "closing": "2.2500",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-93ae7d9aab9c119985e100d9",
   "quote_text": "Last week's victory was Bayern's first against Leverkusen in seven attempts in all competitions.",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250319230713id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-vs-bayern-munich-predictions-draw-not-good-enough-for-hosts-2025030916255116216/",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-80cc1bf0abe8f93d5fcd9aaa",
   "quote_text": "Both sides were beaten in the German top flight over the weekend",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250319230713id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-vs-bayern-munich-predictions-draw-not-good-enough-for-hosts-2025030916255116216/",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-832b4327820c7ab47a66c725",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-832b4327820c7ab47a66c725",
   "quote_text": "Florian Wirtz is a major doubt after he was forced off in the second half against Werder Bremen",
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   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250518105026id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-bayern-munich-predictions-champions-league-2025030916255116216/",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-4b64d53051c9019d32061845",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-4b64d53051c9019d32061845",
   "quote_text": "Leverkusen defender Nordi Mukiele was sent off in the first leg so is suspended for Tuesday's game.",
   "fragment_from": 935,
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   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250518105026id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-bayern-munich-predictions-champions-league-2025030916255116216/",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-9506fae501f27c4e695dbb26",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-9506fae501f27c4e695dbb26",
   "quote_text": "Recommended bet: Draw",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250518105026id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-bayern-munich-predictions-champions-league-2025030916255116216/",
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    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-03-09T16:25:51.000Z",
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    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [],
    "flag_words": null,
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-0f5eab4236f3e716f5938d59",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-0f5eab4236f3e716f5938d59",
   "quote_text": "Back the draw at 13/5 with LiveScore Bet.",
   "fragment_from": 3299,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250518105026id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-bayern-munich-predictions-champions-league-2025030916255116216/",
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    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-03-09T16:25:51.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:21:39.827Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.664Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
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    "display_name": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen v FC Bayern München",
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    "scoreline": "0-2"
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   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "draw",
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    "by_author": "3.6",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "3.6000",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
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   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_basis": "page",
    "source_page_at": "2025-03-09T16:25:51.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:21:39.827Z",
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    "flags": [],
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "choice": "draw",
    "author_odds": "3.6",
    "market_key": "1x2",
    "choice_key": "X",
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    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "1X2, match result: draw at 3.6"
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Lost: the final score was Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-2 FC Bayern München."
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     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
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     "decimal_odds": "3.6",
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     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
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     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
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    {
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     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "draw",
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     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
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     "status": "confirmed",
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     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.664Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
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    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
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    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/bayer-leverkusen-bayern-munich-predictions-champions-league-2025030916255116216/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-d477946cc442639583bcec2a",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-d477946cc442639583bcec2a",
   "quote_text": "Eric Garcia is suspended for the hosts after he was sent off against Monaco on Matchday One.",
   "fragment_from": 1265,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241004001649id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/barcelona-vs-young-boys-prediction-catalans-to-deliver-big-win-2024093011495378252/",
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    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:53.278Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T11:49:53.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:53.278Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-90a2336cfc06e7ca17af1acc",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-90a2336cfc06e7ca17af1acc",
   "quote_text": "Frenkie de Jong could be back in the fold for Barcelona",
   "fragment_from": 888,
   "fragment_to": 943,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241004001649id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/barcelona-vs-young-boys-prediction-catalans-to-deliver-big-win-2024093011495378252/",
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    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:53.278Z",
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   "statement_class": "no_event",
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   "odds_set": {
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   "stake_hundredths": null,
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   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T11:49:53.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:53.278Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-fc518033159784ad2df80b29",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-fc518033159784ad2df80b29",
   "quote_text": "Back Barcelona to win at 11/20 with LiveScore Bet",
   "fragment_from": 3616,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250514120710id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/barcelona-vs-inter-milan-predictions-catalans-to-secure-first-leg-advantage-2025042810113933376/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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    "bundle_id": "ddd74e7e93af9d318ef0ad22ca3c94fb1d444aad32cac62aac3a1004e125749b",
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   },
   "published_at": "2025-04-28T10:37:52.000Z",
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:42.933Z",
   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.646Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "FC Barcelona v Inter",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-3"
   },
   "market_label": "1X2, match result",
   "outcome_label": "FC Barcelona",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "1.55",
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "1.6950",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-bb1ea52ab487bf8eed6407a2",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-bb1ea52ab487bf8eed6407a2",
   "quote_text": "Celtic's Japan international Daizen Maeda is suspended after his sending off in last week's win over Young Boys.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250317135634id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
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   },
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-e39314b476c318873c427465",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-e39314b476c318873c427465",
   "quote_text": "Amadou Onana and Ross Barkley remain on the sidelines but John McGinn has recovered from injury",
   "fragment_from": 1251,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250317135634id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
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   },
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-25cef2cce3bf8412a00fe3d2",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-25cef2cce3bf8412a00fe3d2",
   "quote_text": "With Pau Torres also still out, Lucas Digne may have to shift to a central defensive role for the hosts.",
   "fragment_from": 1145,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250317135634id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
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   },
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
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  },
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   "observation_id": "n-cc790f318627c4cd485ae076",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cc790f318627c4cd485ae076",
   "quote_text": "Aston Villa centre-back Tyrone Mings was forced off against West Ham on Sunday with a knee injury",
   "fragment_from": 984,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250317135634id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
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   },
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  },
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   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-538a6cebfe611a09a3661cf9",
   "quote_text": "Back Jhon Duran to score at any time at 6/5 with LiveScore Bet",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250317135634id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
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   },
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   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "unknown",
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   "withdrawn": false,
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    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": {
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   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
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     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
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     "odds_role": "author_price",
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     "status": "skipped",
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     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
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    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
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   "observation_id": "n-d1f360bb258c92c4cdf65eb8",
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   "fragment_from": 1381,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241001045603id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/sunderland-derby-predictions-championship-2024093011082298708/",
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   "provenance": "restored_archive",
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    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-30T11:08:22.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:08:40.978Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
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     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
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   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
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   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-64618e0e92ad693364316930",
   "quote_text": "This is the first meeting between the two sides since Sunderland won 4-1 away at Derby",
   "fragment_from": 2076,
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   "quote_allowed": true,
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   },
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    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/sunderland-derby-predictions-championship-2024093011082298708/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-591e114d1e5f3071aeab1e54",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-591e114d1e5f3071aeab1e54",
   "quote_text": "Summer signing Serhou Guirassy is tipped to start up front for Dortmund",
   "fragment_from": 1799,
   "fragment_to": 1870,
   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
    "medium": "website",
    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240918013020id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/club-brugge-borussia-dortmund-predictions-champions-league-2024091614090477945/",
    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
    "authorship": "channel_owner",
    "media_from_ms": null,
    "bundle_id": "7d5a8e75795330792e141f189ae7b3a03dc53cd448a0e81cbc249cc83d280f95",
    "material_removed": false
   },
   "published_at": null,
   "detected_at": "2026-10-09T12:59:15.435Z",
   "executed_at": null,
   "statement_class": "no_event",
   "status": "recognised",
   "cause": null,
   "cause_code": null,
   "event": null,
   "market_label": null,
   "outcome_label": null,
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": null,
    "our_snapshot": null,
    "our_snapshot_at": null,
    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": null,
    "closing_source": null
   },
   "stake_hundredths": null,
   "result": null,
   "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
   "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
   "executed_by": null,
   "series_label": null,
   "withdrawn": false,
   "provenance": "restored_archive",
   "provenance_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "dates": {
    "fragment_at": null,
    "fragment_basis": "no",
    "source_page_at": "2024-09-16T15:09:00.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T12:59:15.435Z",
    "archive_snapshot_at": null,
    "flags": [
     "long_before_detection",
     "not_fragment_date"
    ],
    "flag_words": "The source page is dated long before we first recorded it: it is a page that is updated over time, so the page date is set aside for this prediction.",
    "rule_version": "1.1"
   },
   "origin": "prematch_web_archive",
   "origin_detail": null,
   "origin_words": "Archived before kick-off",
   "added_on": null,
   "late_publication": null,
   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
    "scoreline": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "statement",
   "authorship": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 14,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 4,
  "found_post_match": 10,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 13,
  "span_from": "2024-08-31",
  "span_to": "2025-04-30",
  "line_text": "restored history: 14, of which pre-match archive 4",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Premier League, Championship and Champions League matches between 31 August 2024 and 30 April 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 14. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 4. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 10. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 14,
   "share": "0.4286"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 13,
    "roi": "-2.0846",
    "ci_low": "-60.1615",
    "ci_high": "56.8462",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 13,
    "roi": "-14.1538",
    "ci_low": "-72.4615",
    "ci_high": "49.3462",
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_derived_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored score forecast: result implied by the score, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 1,
    "roi": "7.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Premier League",
   "Championship",
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 14 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged.",
  "score_accuracy": {
   "n": 1,
   "share": "0.0"
  }
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "livescore.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241208155942id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/crvena-zvezda-barcelona-predictions-champions-league-2024110416471904250/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-09",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 4,
  "matches": 4,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 15900,
  "staked_hundredths": 40000,
  "return_percent": "39.75",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-08-31",
  "period_to": "2024-10-01",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 4 settled archived picks by Aidan Perkins from copies archived before kick-off, across 4 matches between 31 August and 1 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 3 of 4 settled archived picks. Of the 18 predictions we hold for Aidan Perkins, 4 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "4",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "4",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+159 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+39.8%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Most of this history was found after the matches. Of the 13 selections in this historical price series, 4 have a pre-match archive copy and 9 were first found after the match.",
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 4,
    "matches": 4,
    "match_dates": 3,
    "period_from": "2024-08-31",
    "period_to": "2024-10-01",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 15900,
    "low": {
     "date": "2024-08-31",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7900,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-09-18",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19750,
     "after_picks": 2
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-08-31",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7900,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-09-18",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 19750,
      "n": 2,
      "picks": 1
     },
     {
      "date": "2024-10-01",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 15900,
      "n": 4,
      "picks": 2
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 4 settled archived picks by Aidan Perkins from copies archived before kick-off, across 4 matches between 31 August and 1 October 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 3 of 4 settled archived picks. Of the 18 predictions we hold for Aidan Perkins, 4 were archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 14 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/aidan-perkins/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 18,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 4,
   "proven_checked": 4,
   "proven_measured": 4,
   "proven_dates": 3,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 4,
     "checked": 4,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 4,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 4,
      "net_points_hundredths": 15900,
      "staked_hundredths": 40000,
      "return_percent": "39.75",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-08-31",
      "period_to": "2024-10-01",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 3,
       "return_main_percent": "86.33",
       "return_other_percent": "72.63",
       "settled_excluding_void": 3,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 25900,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 21790,
       "period_from": "2024-08-31",
       "period_to": "2024-10-01"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 4,
      "priced": 4
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 4,
      "won": 3,
      "won_percent": "75.0",
      "implied_percent": "43.9",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 3,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "54.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "11.9"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 14,
     "checked": 10,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 9,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 9,
      "net_points_hundredths": -34300,
      "staked_hundredths": 90000,
      "return_percent": "-38.11",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-10-23",
      "period_to": "2025-04-30",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 9,
       "return_main_percent": "-38.11",
       "return_other_percent": "-44.44",
       "settled_excluding_void": 9,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -34300,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -40000,
       "period_from": "2024-10-23",
       "period_to": "2025-04-30"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 10,
      "priced": 9
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 9,
      "won": 2,
      "won_percent": "22.2",
      "implied_percent": "33.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Match result",
        "won": 2,
        "picks": 5,
        "implied_percent": "37.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Result and both teams to score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 3,
        "implied_percent": "33.5"
       },
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "16.1"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
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   "n-2c172ef3d94200a846ff9ca8",
   "n-75f21e5c74a8657541b74884",
   "n-7ff9565434a5f1e31ff0a72e"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 31 August – 1 October 2024 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-31",
  "record_to": "2025-04-30"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-fc518033159784ad2df80b29",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-fc518033159784ad2df80b29",
   "match": "FC Barcelona v Inter",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-04-30T19:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -12642.3,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona at 1.55",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-3",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "1.55",
   "settled_price": "1.6950",
   "published_at": "2025-04-28T10:37:52.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:42.933Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-fc518033159784ad2df80b29",
    "quote_text": "Back Barcelona to win at 11/20 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 3616,
    "fragment_to": 3665,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250514120710id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/barcelona-vs-inter-milan-predictions-catalans-to-secure-first-leg-advantage-2025042810113933376/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "ddd74e7e93af9d318ef0ad22ca3c94fb1d444aad32cac62aac3a1004e125749b",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-04-28T10:37:52.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:42.933Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.646Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "FC Barcelona v Inter",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
     "starts_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "3-3"
    },
    "market_label": "1X2, match result",
    "outcome_label": "FC Barcelona",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "1.55",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "1.6950",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-04-28T10:37:52.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-04-28T10:37:52.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:20:42.933Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "1X2, match result",
     "choice": "FC Barcelona",
     "author_odds": "1.55",
     "market_key": "1x2",
     "choice_key": "1",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona at 1.55"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "3-3",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Lost: the final score was FC Barcelona 3-3 Inter."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "57d47e6fcd1e7cce347e818a64652baa1de25762191dff8b51894576a4bfd5a5",
      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
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      "operation_id": "10ad36c269e75def2b7fe4f1e0b1c306debfc7a7dba0c799893bfba732331d3c",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "1X2, match result",
      "choice": "Brentford",
      "decimal_odds": "1.7900",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "win",
      "result_words": "Won",
      "change_hundredths": 7900,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:03.935Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Aidan Perkins",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/brentford-southampton-predictions-premier-league-2024082912275465082/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Brentford to win"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-538a6cebfe611a09a3661cf9",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-538a6cebfe611a09a3661cf9",
   "match": "Aston Villa v Celtic",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -14825.2,
   "market_code": "player_to_score",
   "author_said": "Player to score: Jhon Duran to score at 2.2",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-27T14:55:00.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T13:13:55.323Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-538a6cebfe611a09a3661cf9",
    "quote_text": "Back Jhon Duran to score at any time at 6/5 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 3916,
    "fragment_to": 3978,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250317135634id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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     "bundle_id": "88ca755242df588e6eada4f392a98cf55f44a4a2e8de2881a5b01add091db6c2",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-01-27T14:55:00.000Z",
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    "executed_at": null,
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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     "display_name": "Aston Villa v Celtic",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
     "starts_at": "2025-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": null
    },
    "market_label": "Player to score",
    "outcome_label": "Jhon Duran to score",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "2.2",
     "our_snapshot": null,
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     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "unknown",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
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     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T13:13:55.323Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Player to score",
     "choice": "Jhon Duran to score",
     "author_odds": "2.2",
     "market_key": "player_to_score",
     "choice_key": "yes",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "player_goals",
     "in_words": "Player to score: Jhon Duran to score at 2.2"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "unknown",
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "d85fec78b7ca0ba14f6a30ca2eefe7225ccf96c9deaa7c80deef36a55c45f872",
      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Player to score",
      "choice": "Jhon Duran to score",
      "decimal_odds": "2.2",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: not settled",
      "result": "unknown",
      "result_words": "Pending",
      "change_hundredths": null,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.401Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Aidan Perkins",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/aston-villa-celtic-predictions-champions-league-2025012714550055527/",
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     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Jhon Duran to score"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-59a326137cd9bfe1af93eec6",
   "url": null,
   "match": "AC Milan v Girona",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-01-22T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -14992.9,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: AC Milan",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
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   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2025-01-20T13:26:57.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T12:54:59.950Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
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   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-2fa2e4ed6240323e68d2b64c",
   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/#pick-n-2fa2e4ed6240323e68d2b64c",
   "match": "AC Milan v Girona",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-01-22T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -14992.9,
   "market_code": "player_to_score",
   "author_said": "Player to score: Tammy Abraham to score at 2.55",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "not_supported",
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   "series_code": null,
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   "published_at": "2025-01-20T13:26:57.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T12:54:59.950Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
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   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-2fa2e4ed6240323e68d2b64c",
    "quote_text": "Back Tammy Abraham to score anytime at 31/20 with LiveScore Bet.",
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    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
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     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250212230833id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/ac-milan-girona-predictions-champions-league-2025012013265780427/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Aidan Perkins",
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    },
    "market_label": "Player to score",
    "outcome_label": "Tammy Abraham to score",
    "odds_set": {
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     "closing": null,
     "closing_source": null
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "unknown",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": null,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": null,
    "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
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     "fragment_basis": "page",
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     "detected_at": "2026-10-09T12:54:59.950Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
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    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Player to score",
     "choice": "Tammy Abraham to score",
     "author_odds": "2.55",
     "market_key": "player_to_score",
     "choice_key": "yes",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "player_goals",
     "in_words": "Player to score: Tammy Abraham to score at 2.55"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "unknown",
     "scoreline": null,
     "data_status": "unknown",
     "cause": "awaiting a final score for this restored pick",
     "methodology_version": "2.2",
     "in_words": "Pending: awaiting a final score for this restored pick."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
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      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Player to score",
      "choice": "Tammy Abraham to score",
      "decimal_odds": "2.55",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "skipped",
      "status_text": "Not executed: not settled",
      "result": "unknown",
      "result_words": "Pending",
      "change_hundredths": null,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:06.245Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "prediction",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Aidan Perkins",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Aidan Perkins",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
     "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/ac-milan-girona-predictions-champions-league-2025012013265780427/",
     "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
     "verdict_by": null,
     "verdict_line": null
    },
    "correction": null,
    "choice_words": "Tammy Abraham to score"
   }
  },
  {
   "record_id": "n-4ada20801eb86f5fabc416e4",
   "url": null,
   "match": "FK Crvena Zvezda v FC Barcelona",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2024-11-06T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -16842.1,
   "market_code": "1x2",
   "author_said": "1X2, match result: FC Barcelona",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "excluded",
   "outcome": "Excluded",
   "claim_outcome": null,
   "final_score": null,
   "reason": "counted in the restored-history series",
   "reason_code": "disputed_reading",
   "points_hundredths": null,
   "series_code": null,
   "series_short": null,
   "author_price": null,
   "settled_price": null,
   "published_at": "2024-11-04T17:38:24.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-09T14:04:21.692Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
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   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "lead_time": {
  "contract_version": 1,
  "threshold_hours": 2.0,
  "picks": 18,
  "before_kickoff": 0,
  "after_kickoff": 18,
  "at_least_2h": 0,
  "share_2h_plus": 0.0,
  "median_hours": null,
  "min_hours": null,
  "max_hours": null,
  "words": "Hours between the moment we recorded the pick and kick-off; the share counts picks recorded at least two hours before kick-off."
 },
 "baseline": {
  "contract_version": 1,
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  "rule": "recorded-line-1.0",
  "state": "none",
  "picks": 0,
  "settled_picks_all": 0,
  "excluded": {
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   "no_recorded_line": 0,
   "favourite_not_settled": 0
  },
  "staked_hundredths": 0,
  "author_net_hundredths": 0,
  "favourite_net_hundredths": 0,
  "difference_hundredths": 0,
  "author_return_percent": null,
  "favourite_return_percent": null,
  "author_hit_rate": null,
  "favourite_hit_rate": null,
  "picked_favourite_share": null,
  "by_market": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "words": "Same stakes, same matches, same recorded moment: the author’s picks against backing the market favourite by the recorded line. Only markets with a single shortest price count (match result, over/under, both teams to score, handicap); correct score and combined markets are left out."
 },
 "pagination": {
  "per_page": 20,
  "total": 18,
  "pages": 1,
  "page_urls": [
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  ],
  "groups": {
   "settled": 14,
   "pending": 0,
   "excluded": 4
  },
  "continuation": "by_time",
  "page": 1,
  "first": 1,
  "last": 18,
  "author_url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/",
  "current": false
 },
 "title_tag": "Aidan Perkins Predictions: Verified Record, Results and Sources",
 "calculator": null,
 "person": {
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  "name_shown": "Aidan Perkins",
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  "identity": {
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   "source_list": []
  },
  "platform_list": [
   {
    "entity_ref": "e-52caa308055dea7f8565bace",
    "medium": "LiveScore",
    "channel": "section pages",
    "domain": "livescore.com",
    "source_info": "livescore",
    "byline": "Aidan Perkins",
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    "summary": {
     "statements": 95,
     "predictions": 18,
     "settled_picks": 4,
     "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
     "return_percent": 39.75,
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     "period_to": "2026-10-09"
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 },
 "data_revision": {
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  "updated": "2026-10-10",
  "current_release": "2026-11-07.2",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "price_rule": "reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
  "sample": {
   "settled_picks": 4,
   "matches": 4,
   "void": 0,
   "period_from": "2024-08-31",
   "period_to": "2024-10-01",
   "composition_hash": "8c1649c7f29d70058d19a2ce0f2fdfd7690b3a99116e320be0ce1ee67ae2095f"
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  "changes_url": "#changes",
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 },
 "number_changes": [
  {
   "id": "zc-e47b745c1a30b877a085",
   "at": "2026-10-10T02:51:03.370Z",
   "data_version": "2026-10-10.1",
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   "url": "/authors/aidan-perkins/",
   "category": "coverage_extended",
   "category_words": "Coverage extended",
   "before": null,
   "after": {
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    "return_percent": "39.75",
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    "matches": 4,
    "void": 0,
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm:archived",
    "price_rule": "historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only",
    "method_version": "retro-1.1",
    "composition_hash": "8c1649c7f29d70058d19a2ce0f2fdfd7690b3a99116e320be0ce1ee67ae2095f",
    "text": "+159.00 points on 4 settled picks across 4 matches · historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only · method retro-1.1"
   },
   "reason": "First headline number for this record: 4 settled picks in the series “historical simulation at the last pre-match archive price (~8–15 h before kick-off), archived before kick-off only”.",
   "checked_by": "comparison of data versions",
   "affected_records": {
    "added": 4,
    "removed": 0,
    "changed": 0
   },
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  }
 ],
 "counts_by_slice": {
  "portions": [
   {
    "code": "archived",
    "title": "Archived before kick-off",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "settled_picks": 4,
    "total_check": true,
    "market_list": [
     {
      "code_name": "1x2",
      "in_words": "Match result",
      "url": null,
      "settled_picks": 3,
      "won": 3,
      "void": 0,
      "net_points_hundredths": 25900,
      "return_percent": "86.3",
      "period_from": "2024-08-31",
      "period_to": "2024-10-01",
      "small_sample": true,
      "average_odds": "1.73",
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