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 "heading": "Aaron Rogan: Football Prediction Record",
 "description": "1 settled pick by Aaron Rogan archived before kick-off across 1 match, 12 Aug 2024: won 1 of 1, reconstructed at archived prices.",
 "first_paragraph": {
  "body": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Aaron Rogan from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 12 August 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Aaron Rogan, 1 was archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "key_number": "1",
  "data": "2026-11-07",
  "source_info": "our own evidence archive and market snapshot",
  "brand": "Forecast Record"
 },
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  "restored_count": 2,
  "of_them_archived": 1
 },
 "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
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 "exports": [
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 ],
 "modules": {
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 },
 "affiliate_block": {
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  "disclosure": "Some links below are affiliate links and are marked as such. They never affect what you see above: the order of any table is computed before any commission is known.",
  "page_category": "author"
 },
 "restrictions": {
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 },
 "page_links": {
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 },
 "entity": {
  "id": "e-d9b78f7a4c8db84dcea381bd",
  "public_name": "Aaron Rogan",
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  "observation_period": {
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  },
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 },
 "headline_number": {
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   "window_to": "2026-11-07",
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   "unit": "percent",
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "no pick in this window has been settled",
   "n_bets": 0,
   "n_events": 0,
   "n_void": null,
   "ci_low": null,
   "ci_high": null,
   "ci_method": "not_estimated",
   "price_source": "market_price",
   "coverage_percent": null,
   "breakdown": [],
   "methodology_version": "2.2",
   "data_date": "2026-11-07T19:52:23.438Z",
   "enough_for_ranking": false,
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   "series_label": "At an independent odds snapshot"
  },
  "byline": "Return on stakes at an independent odds snapshot over 90 days: 0 settled picks across 0 matches",
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 },
 "metrics": [],
 "history": [],
 "simulation": {
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  "rule": "Every tracked author starts with 10,000 points and stakes 100 per qualifying pick. This author has 0 settled bets, so the bankroll stands at its starting value."
 },
 "simulations": [],
 "completeness": {
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 },
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 },
 "evidence_items": [
  {
   "observation_id": "n-6ed69ad236b879cfeef78916",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-6ed69ad236b879cfeef78916",
   "quote_text": "Monaco have some key injury issues here as they are without forwards Folarin Balogun and George",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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   "observation_id": "n-cd7871a3e63fecbd4b903360",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-cd7871a3e63fecbd4b903360",
   "quote_text": "Inter will be without both Hakan Calhanoglu and Raffaele Di Gennaro, while Francesco Acerbi is",
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   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
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    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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   "funnel_stage": "statement",
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  },
  {
   "observation_id": "n-b8745a307cb7bfe192a30322",
   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-b8745a307cb7bfe192a30322",
   "quote_text": "Inter Milan have little pressure on their shoulders as the League Phase of the Champions League",
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   "source_info": {
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    "speaker": "Aaron Rogan",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
   "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": null,
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": null,
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    "data_status": "unknown",
    "cause": "the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled",
    "methodology_version": "2.2",
    "in_words": "No outcome: the statement was not read as a pick that can be settled."
   },
   "settlements": [],
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  },
  {
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   "url": "/authors/aaron-rogan/#pick-n-c91a8932472a2f4e8cabdcd4",
   "quote_text": "Back Inter Milan to win 1-0 at 7/1 with LiveScore Bet",
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    "display_name": null,
    "speaker": "Aaron Rogan",
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   "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:51.065Z",
   "statement_class": "priced",
   "status": "too_late",
   "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
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   "event": {
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    "display_name": "Inter v Monaco",
    "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
    "starts_at": "2025-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
    "url": null,
    "scoreline": "3-0"
   },
   "market_label": "Correct score",
   "outcome_label": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
   "odds_set": {
    "by_author": "8",
    "our_snapshot": null,
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    "our_snapshot_source": null,
    "closing": "10.7500",
    "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
   },
   "stake_hundredths": 10000,
   "result": "loss",
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   "executed_by": "ours",
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   "provenance": "found_post_match",
   "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "dates": {
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   },
   "origin": "source_stated_date",
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   "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "added_on": null,
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   "author_claim": {
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "choice": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
    "author_odds": "8",
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    "line": null,
    "subject": "goals_total",
    "in_words": "Correct score: Inter 1-0 Monaco at 8"
   },
   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "loss",
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    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Inter 3-0 Monaco."
   },
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     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
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     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
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     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
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     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "loss",
     "result_words": "Lost",
     "change_hundredths": -10000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:51.065Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
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   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
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    "publisher": "livescore.com",
    "forecaster": "Aaron Rogan",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/inter-milan-vs-monaco-predictions-italian-hosts-set-for-routine-win-2025012715473519712/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
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   "url": "/evidence/?pick=n-d29b6f1d714452a9ba2ebd5f",
   "quote_text": "Sticking with Rob Edwards brings them continuity, but he may need time to refocus minds after a difficult year at the highest level.",
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   "quote_allowed": true,
   "source_info": {
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    "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20240811213245id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/luton-burnley-predictions-championship-2024081111053683914/",
    "display_name": null,
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   "author_claim_outcome": {
    "result": "win",
    "scoreline": "1-4",
    "data_status": "measured",
    "cause": null,
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "in_words": "Won: the final score was Luton Town 1-4 Burnley."
   },
   "settlements": [
    {
     "operation_id": "3bca0d8dfab747857a8ebc1eabe29fd6c728dc1bad20d3aea65ba56143f541dc",
     "series_key": "retro_author_price",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.8",
     "odds_role": "author_price",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 8000,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:04.856Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    },
    {
     "operation_id": "7ef1cdbf37a62c709286a8e08f1bffdee68f2fcb0ae641a3653ba815c8e59386",
     "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
     "derived": false,
     "site_simulation": true,
     "author_words": true,
     "market_label": "Over/Under 2.5 goals",
     "choice": "over 2.5",
     "decimal_odds": "1.7600",
     "odds_role": "closing_odds",
     "stake_hundredths": 10000,
     "status": "confirmed",
     "status_text": "Executed",
     "result": "win",
     "result_words": "Won",
     "change_hundredths": 7600,
     "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:23:04.862Z",
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
     "on_claim_market": true,
     "replaced": false
    }
   ],
   "corrections": [],
   "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
   "authorship": {
    "material_author": "Aaron Rogan",
    "publisher": "livescore.com",
    "forecaster": "Aaron Rogan",
    "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
    "basis": null,
    "status": "not_named",
    "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
    "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
    "evidence_fragment": null,
    "material_url": "https://www.livescore.com/en/news/amp/luton-burnley-predictions-championship-2024081111053683914/",
    "excluded_from_individual_summaries": false,
    "verdict_by": null,
    "verdict_line": null
   },
   "correction": null
  }
 ],
 "standing": null,
 "retro": {
  "restored_total": 2,
  "of_them_archived_pre_match": 1,
  "found_post_match": 1,
  "of_them_source_reported": 0,
  "live_count": 0,
  "date_count": 2,
  "span_from": "2024-08-12",
  "span_to": "2025-01-29",
  "line_text": "restored history: 2, of which pre-match archive 1",
  "body": "We re-read what this author published before Championship and Champions League matches between 12 August 2024 and 29 January 2025 and settled it against the final score. Restored picks: 2. Backed by a copy of the page in an independent web archive taken before kick-off: 1. Found after the match, with the publication date as stated by the source: 1. The market price at the moment of publication cannot be reconstructed, so restored picks are shown as reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off), not at the closing price, for the pre-match archive and the later finds separately; the author's quoted price and, where it exists, the aggregator closing price are compared with it on the same picks. Authors can delete losing picks, so restored history may look better than it was.",
  "precision": {
   "n": 2,
   "share": "0.5"
  },
  "series_list": [
   {
    "code_name": "retro_author_price",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "-10.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": null
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the closing market price",
    "n": 0,
    "roi": null,
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "unknown",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
    "cause": "no restored pick with this price"
   },
   {
    "code_name": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "display_name": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "n": 2,
    "roi": "-12.0000",
    "ci_low": null,
    "ci_high": null,
    "data_status": "calculated",
    "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
    "cause": null
   }
  ],
  "clv": {
   "data_status": "unknown",
   "cause": "the market price at the moment of publication is unknown for restored picks; the author's quoted price against the aggregator closing price is compared on the same picks in each part of the record above"
  },
  "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
  "leagues": [
   "Championship",
   "Champions League"
  ],
  "source_list": "Results: the official regulation-time score, checked against a second data provider for 0 settled restored picks and forecasts, and the two agree; 2 come from one provider only. Prices: the aggregator closing price and the second data provider's last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off), as a separate series; each provider is its own series and they are never averaged."
 },
 "late": null,
 "price_vs_market": null,
 "record_summary": {
  "contract_version": "1",
  "entity_type": "person",
  "entity_words": "Individual author",
  "source": {
   "name": "livescore.com",
   "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250219193135id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/inter-milan-vs-monaco-predictions-italian-hosts-set-for-routine-win-2025012715473519712/"
  },
  "observed_from": "2026-10-09",
  "observed_to": "2026-10-17",
  "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
  "state": "settled",
  "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
  "series": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
  "restored": true,
  "headline_kind": "historical_simulation",
  "headline_part": "archived",
  "settled_picks": 1,
  "matches": 1,
  "void": 0,
  "net_points_hundredths": 7600,
  "staked_hundredths": 10000,
  "return_percent": "76.00",
  "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
  "period_from": "2024-08-12",
  "period_to": "2024-08-12",
  "status": "calculated",
  "method_version": "retro-1.1",
  "short_history": true,
  "reason": null,
  "reasons": [],
  "sentence": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Aaron Rogan from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 12 August 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Aaron Rogan, 1 was archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
  "numbers": [
   {
    "label": "Settled archived picks",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settled-pick",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Matches",
    "value": "1",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#match",
    "note": null
   },
   {
    "label": "Net result",
    "value": "+76 points",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#settlement",
    "note": "100 points per pick"
   },
   {
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "value": "+76.0%",
    "anchor": "/methodology/#roi",
    "note": null
   }
  ],
  "limitations": [
   "Reconstructed at archived prices: these picks were restored from copies of the author’s pages that an independent web archive saved before kick-off, at the last pre-match archive prices, bookmaker margin included."
  ],
  "other_series": [],
  "return_over_time": [],
  "return_over_time_parts": {
   "live": null,
   "archived": {
    "part": "archived",
    "label": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
    "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
    "x_axis": "match_date",
    "dated_note": "Dated by match day. These picks were restored from copies an independent web archive saved before kick-off; the line shows how they settled at archived prices.",
    "settled_picks": 1,
    "matches": 1,
    "match_dates": 1,
    "period_from": "2024-08-12",
    "period_to": "2024-08-12",
    "stake_per_pick_hundredths": 10000,
    "final_points_hundredths": 7600,
    "low": {
     "date": "2024-08-12",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7600,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "high": {
     "date": "2024-08-12",
     "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7600,
     "after_picks": 1
    },
    "line_drawn": false,
    "steps": [
     {
      "date": "2024-08-12",
      "cumulative_points_hundredths": 7600,
      "n": 1,
      "picks": 1
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  "author_response": null,
  "cite": {
   "text": "Forecast Record restored 1 settled archived pick by Aaron Rogan from copies archived before kick-off, across 1 match on 12 August 2024. Reconstructed at archived prices: won 1 of 1 settled archived pick. Of the 2 predictions we hold for Aaron Rogan, 1 was archived before kick-off by an independent web archive and 1 first found after the match. Figures as of 7 November 2026.",
   "url": "https://forecastrecord.com/authors/aaron-rogan/",
   "data_as_of": "2026-11-07",
   "method_version": "retro-1.1"
  },
  "origin": {
   "contract_version": "1",
   "predictions": 2,
   "under_review": 0,
   "no_match_linked": 0,
   "proven_predictions": 1,
   "proven_checked": 1,
   "proven_measured": 1,
   "proven_dates": 1,
   "parts": [
    {
     "code": "live",
     "title": "Recorded before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Saved by us from the source before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 0,
     "checked": 0,
     "price_rule": "Return at our recorded market price",
     "series_code": "market_price",
     "main": null,
     "same_picks": [],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 0,
      "priced": 0
     },
     "accuracy": null
    },
    {
     "code": "archived",
     "title": "Archived before kick-off",
     "explanation": "Restored from a copy saved by an independent web archive before kick-off.",
     "predictions": 1,
     "checked": 1,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 1,
      "net_points_hundredths": 7600,
      "staked_hundredths": 10000,
      "return_percent": "76.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2024-08-12",
      "period_to": "2024-08-12",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "76.00",
       "return_other_percent": "80.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": 7600,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": 8000,
       "period_from": "2024-08-12",
       "period_to": "2024-08-12"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 1,
      "priced": 1
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1,
      "won": 1,
      "won_percent": "100.0",
      "implied_percent": "56.8",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Over/under goals",
        "won": 1,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "56.8"
       }
      ]
     }
    },
    {
     "code": "found_after",
     "title": "Found after the match",
     "explanation": "First found after the match; the date is the one the source states.",
     "predictions": 1,
     "checked": 1,
     "price_rule": "Reconstructed at archived prices",
     "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
     "main": {
      "settled_picks": 1,
      "void": 0,
      "matches": 1,
      "net_points_hundredths": -10000,
      "staked_hundredths": 10000,
      "return_percent": "-100.00",
      "interval_low": null,
      "interval_high": null,
      "interval_note": "too few independent matches to estimate an interval",
      "period_from": "2025-01-29",
      "period_to": "2025-01-29",
      "method_version": "retro-1.1"
     },
     "same_picks": [
      {
       "price": "Author-quoted price",
       "series_code": "retro_author_price",
       "picks": 1,
       "return_main_percent": "-100.00",
       "return_other_percent": "-100.00",
       "settled_excluding_void": 1,
       "net_main_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "net_other_points_hundredths": -10000,
       "period_from": "2025-01-29",
       "period_to": "2025-01-29"
      }
     ],
     "score": {
      "score_forecasts": 0,
      "exact_hits": 0,
      "exact_rate": null,
      "outcome_checked": 0,
      "outcome_hits": 0,
      "outcome_rate": null,
      "baseline_matches": 0,
      "baseline_distinct_matches": 0,
      "outcome_hits_on_baseline": 0,
      "outcome_rate_on_baseline": null,
      "favourite_hits": 0,
      "favourite_rate": null,
      "price_basis": null,
      "pending": 0,
      "void": 0,
      "recorded_after_kickoff": 0,
      "lines": []
     },
     "eligible": {
      "checked": 1,
      "priced": 1
     },
     "accuracy": {
      "picks": 1,
      "won": 0,
      "won_percent": "0.0",
      "implied_percent": "9.3",
      "left_out": 0,
      "by_market": [
       {
        "market": "Correct score",
        "won": 0,
        "picks": 1,
        "implied_percent": "9.3"
       }
      ]
     }
    }
   ]
  },
  "live_alongside": null,
  "headline_record_ids": [
   "n-2887115a1073fa265553bcf6"
  ],
  "interval_low": null,
  "interval_high": null,
  "caption": "Archived before kick-off, reconstructed at archived prices (~8–15 h before kick-off) · 100 points per pick · 12 August 2024 · Calculated · picks settled under reconstruction method 1.1",
  "record_from": "2024-08-12",
  "record_to": "2025-01-29"
 },
 "recorded_picks": [
  {
   "record_id": "n-c91a8932472a2f4e8cabdcd4",
   "url": "/authors/aaron-rogan/#pick-n-c91a8932472a2f4e8cabdcd4",
   "match": "Inter v Monaco",
   "match_url": null,
   "kickoff": "2025-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
   "competition": "UEFA Champions League",
   "lead_hours": -15010.1,
   "market_code": "correct_score_market",
   "author_said": "Correct score: Inter 1-0 Monaco at 8",
   "quote": null,
   "group": "settled",
   "outcome": "Lost",
   "claim_outcome": "Lost",
   "final_score": "3-0",
   "reason": null,
   "reason_code": null,
   "points_hundredths": -10000,
   "series_code": "retro_market_closing_sm",
   "series_short": "last pre-match archive price, restored",
   "author_price": "8",
   "settled_price": "10.7500",
   "published_at": "2025-01-27T15:47:35.000Z",
   "recorded_at": "2026-10-17T06:03:21.050Z",
   "origin": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
   "record_part": "found_after",
   "record_part_words": "Found after the match",
   "in_headline": false,
   "attribution": null,
   "verdict_line": null,
   "price_disputed": null,
   "checked_after_kickoff": false,
   "favourite": null,
   "correction": null,
   "evidence": {
    "observation_id": "n-c91a8932472a2f4e8cabdcd4",
    "quote_text": "Back Inter Milan to win 1-0 at 7/1 with LiveScore Bet",
    "fragment_from": 3133,
    "fragment_to": 3186,
    "quote_allowed": true,
    "source_info": {
     "medium": "website",
     "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20250219193135id_/https://www.livescore.com/en/news/inter-milan-vs-monaco-predictions-italian-hosts-set-for-routine-win-2025012715473519712/",
     "display_name": null,
     "speaker": "Aaron Rogan",
     "authorship": "channel_owner",
     "media_from_ms": null,
     "bundle_id": "0fe8fdc38f94d9c405f228806ba14290925c75056ce4a8622e2692c191fc54dc",
     "material_removed": false
    },
    "published_at": "2025-01-27T15:47:35.000Z",
    "detected_at": "2026-10-17T06:03:21.050Z",
    "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:51.065Z",
    "statement_class": "priced",
    "status": "too_late",
    "cause": "counted in the restored-history series",
    "cause_code": null,
    "event": {
     "event_id": null,
     "display_name": "Inter v Monaco",
     "competition_name": "UEFA Champions League",
     "starts_at": "2025-01-29T20:00:00.000Z",
     "url": null,
     "scoreline": "3-0"
    },
    "market_label": "Correct score",
    "outcome_label": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
    "odds_set": {
     "by_author": "8",
     "our_snapshot": null,
     "our_snapshot_at": null,
     "our_snapshot_source": null,
     "closing": "10.7500",
     "closing_source": "last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)"
    },
    "stake_hundredths": 10000,
    "result": "loss",
    "simulation_change_hundredths": -10000,
    "bankroll_after_hundredths": null,
    "executed_by": "ours",
    "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
    "withdrawn": false,
    "provenance": "found_post_match",
    "provenance_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "dates": {
     "fragment_at": "2025-01-27T15:47:35.000Z",
     "fragment_basis": "page",
     "source_page_at": "2025-01-27T15:47:35.000Z",
     "detected_at": "2026-10-17T06:03:21.050Z",
     "archive_snapshot_at": null,
     "flags": [],
     "flag_words": null,
     "rule_version": "1.1"
    },
    "origin": "source_stated_date",
    "origin_detail": "found_after_match",
    "origin_words": "Found after the match; date as stated by the source",
    "added_on": null,
    "late_publication": null,
    "author_claim": {
     "market_label": "Correct score",
     "choice": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
     "author_odds": "8",
     "market_key": "correct_score_market",
     "choice_key": "1-0",
     "period": "match",
     "line": null,
     "subject": "goals_total",
     "in_words": "Correct score: Inter 1-0 Monaco at 8"
    },
    "author_claim_outcome": {
     "result": "loss",
     "scoreline": "3-0",
     "data_status": "measured",
     "cause": null,
     "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
     "in_words": "Did not match: the final score was Inter 3-0 Monaco."
    },
    "settlements": [
     {
      "operation_id": "de3b9a0cd168655bca0e5dbb12c86eb5b3241065e41b08dacfff62a3306e338d",
      "series_key": "retro_author_price",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the author's stated price",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Correct score",
      "choice": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
      "decimal_odds": "8",
      "odds_role": "author_price",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:51.026Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.0",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     },
     {
      "operation_id": "58619e021b7783c625ea92216cf206667a4b2b08919efe20f923645c6bc4be0d",
      "series_key": "retro_market_closing_sm",
      "series_label": "Restored, at the last pre-match price in archive (~8–15 h before kick-off)",
      "derived": false,
      "site_simulation": true,
      "author_words": true,
      "market_label": "Correct score",
      "choice": "Inter 1-0 Monaco",
      "decimal_odds": "10.7500",
      "odds_role": "closing_odds",
      "stake_hundredths": 10000,
      "status": "confirmed",
      "status_text": "Executed",
      "result": "loss",
      "result_words": "Lost",
      "change_hundredths": -10000,
      "executed_at": "2026-11-07T18:25:51.065Z",
      "methodology_version": "retro-1.1",
      "on_claim_market": true,
      "replaced": false
     }
    ],
    "corrections": [],
    "funnel_stage": "settled_pick",
    "authorship": {
     "material_author": "Aaron Rogan",
     "publisher": "livescore.com",
     "forecaster": "Aaron Rogan",
     "forecaster_named_in_text": false,
     "basis": null,
     "status": "not_named",
     "status_words": "Attributed by the byline",
     "status_note": "The source does not name a separate tipster, so the selection is attributed to the byline or channel owner.",
     "evidence_fragment": null,
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